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World Cup 2026 Predictions: Live Odds & Betting Markets
Updated April 1, 2026 • $449M+ in trading volume on Polymarket • All 48 teams confirmed • 71 days until kickoff
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Key Takeaways
- Spain leads at 16.1% odds — the Euro 2024 champions are Polymarket's favorite
- $449 million in total trading volume across 60 national team contracts on Polymarket
- All 48 teams confirmed — playoffs completed March 31; Italy eliminated, Turkey & Sweden qualified
- Top 5 favorites: Spain (16%), England (13%), France (13%), Argentina (10%), Brazil (9%)
Key Dates & Schedule Highlights
Estadio Azteca, Mexico City
MetLife Stadium, NJ
The expanded 48-team format means the 2026 World Cup runs for 39 days — one week longer than Qatar 2022. This matters for betting: odds markets stay open longer and react to a greater number of results. Key inflection points where you would expect the largest odds movements are: after the group stage draw results (complete), after each round of the knockout stage, and on the day of each major upset.
Top Favorites: Who Will Win the 2026 World Cup?
Based on Polymarket trading data with over $449 million in volume, here are the teams most likely to lift the trophy in East Rutherford on July 19:
Full World Cup 2026 Odds Table
All 60 teams with Polymarket trading odds, sorted by probability. Data refreshes automatically every 10 minutes from Polymarket.
📊 Live Polymarket Odds
Updated: May 16, 2026 at 03:35 UTC| Team | Probability | Odds | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. France | 17.3% | +476 | $26.4M |
| 2. Spain | 16.6% | +504 | $20.5M |
| 3. England | 11.3% | +781 | $16.8M |
| 4. Brazil | 9.2% | +992 | $18.3M |
| 5. Argentina | 8.6% | +1069 | $17.5M |
| 6. Portugal | 8.2% | +1126 | $19.5M |
| 7. Germany | 5.1% | +1841 | $16.4M |
| 8. Netherlands | 3.4% | +2885 | $18.7M |
| 9. Norway | 2.2% | +4344 | $17.3M |
| 10. Japan | 2.1% | +4778 | $21.7M |
| 11. Belgium | 1.8% | +5305 | $16.6M |
| 12. Colombia | 1.7% | +5960 | $15.5M |
| 13. USA | 1.6% | +6351 | $32.1M |
| 14. Morocco | 1.6% | +6351 | $20.4M |
| 15. Switzerland | 1.1% | +8595 | $17.8M |
| 16. Uruguay | 1.1% | +9423 | $17.5M |
| 17. Mexico | 1.1% | +9423 | $19.4M |
| 18. Croatia | 1.1% | +9423 | $21.2M |
| 19. Ecuador | 0.8% | — | $21.5M |
| 20. Senegal | 0.8% | — | $17.3M |
Data from Polymarket API. Odds update every 10 minutes. Probability = market price reflecting collective trader assessment.
View full 60-team market on PredScope →
Market Analysis: What the Money Says
Spain Is the Clear Favorite
Spain's 16.1% probability makes them the clear market favorite heading into the 2026 World Cup. This reflects their dominant Euro 2024 victory, where they beat England in the final, plus one of the youngest and most talented squads in tournament history. With players like Pedri, Gavi, Lamine Yamal, and Nico Williams, Spain combines current form with long-term upside.
The Three-Way Race Behind Spain
England and France are deadlocked at 12.7%, with Argentina close at 9.6%. This reflects genuine uncertainty — any of the top 4 teams could realistically win, and the market prices reflect that. England's perpetual “golden generation” narrative gets a boost from their Euro 2024 final appearance, while France still has the Mbappé X-factor.
Argentina's Defending Champion Discount
Defending champions Argentina are priced at just 9.6% — a significant discount to their 2022 World Cup odds. The market is likely pricing in Lionel Messi's reduced role (he'll be 39 during the tournament) and the difficulty of defending a World Cup title in a 48-team format.
Host Nation Edge: USA, Mexico, Canada
The three host nations are priced at USA 1.7%, Mexico 1.1%, and Canada 0.5%. Historically, host nations overperform at World Cups (South Korea 2002, Russia 2018), and these odds may undervalue the home advantage — especially for the USA, which has invested heavily in its national team program ahead of 2026.
The Haaland Effect: Norway at 2.9%
Norway is priced surprisingly high at 2.9% — higher than traditional powers like Belgium and Colombia. This is almost entirely the “Erling Haaland effect.” While Norway qualified for their first World Cup since 1998, the market may be overvaluing individual talent in a team sport. Still, Haaland's goalscoring record is unparalleled.
Complete Group Stage Analysis (All 12 Groups)
The final draw took place December 5, 2025 at the Kennedy Center in Washington, D.C. As of April 1, 2026, all playoff spots have been filled — the last 6 teams qualified on March 31.
Breaking: All 48 Teams Confirmed (March 31, 2026)
UEFA playoffs: Turkey (Group D), Sweden (Group F), Czechia (Group A), Bosnia & Herzegovina (Group B). Intercontinental: DR Congo (Group K), Iraq (Group I). Italy eliminated by Bosnia in penalty shootout.
Group A — Mexico, South Korea, Czechia, South Africa
Key Player: Son Heung-min (South Korea) — entering his final World Cup at 34, the Tottenham captain will be motivated for one last deep run. Verdict: Mexico and South Korea advance relatively comfortably; Czechia compete for a third-place spot.
Group B — Canada, Switzerland, Qatar, Bosnia & Herzegovina
Key Player: Alphonso Davies (Canada) — the Bayern Munich fullback's pace will be electric in front of home fans in Toronto and Vancouver. Verdict: The story of Group B is Bosnia, who arrive as giant-killers; they could steal third place from Qatar.
Group C — Brazil, Morocco, Scotland, Haiti
Key Player: Achraf Hakimi (Morocco) — one of the best right backs in the world, his overlapping runs define Morocco's attack. Verdict: Brazil and Morocco advance easily; Group C is the most predictable in the tournament.
Group D — USA, Paraguay, Australia, Turkey
Key Player: Christian Pulisic (USA) — playing in front of his home nation at venues like Dallas, Atlanta, and New York, Pulisic's combination of skill and mentality makes him the Americans' most important player. Verdict: Group D is tricky for the USA; Turkey is genuinely dangerous. A USA vs. Turkey deciding match in the group could be one of the tournament's most electric atmospheres.
Group E — Germany, Ecuador, Côte d’Ivoire, Curaçao
Key Player: Florian Wirtz (Germany) — the Bayer Leverkusen playmaker is expected to be the creative heartbeat of Germany's revival. At 23, this could be his defining tournament. Verdict: Germany should top the group convincingly. Ecuador vs. Côte d’Ivoire will decide second place.
Group F — Netherlands, Japan, Tunisia, Sweden
Key Player: Takefusa Kubo (Japan) — the Real Sociedad winger has emerged as Japan's most creative attacker. Japan's organized pressing system could cause Sweden serious problems. Verdict: This is the most competitive group in the tournament. Netherlands leads, but Japan, Sweden, and even Tunisia could steal points. Sweden's Alexander Isak is a genuine wildcard.
Group G — Belgium, Egypt, Iran, New Zealand
Key Player: Mohamed Salah (Egypt) — at 34, this is almost certainly Salah's only World Cup. The Liverpool legend will be desperate to shine; Egypt could overperform with him in top form. Verdict: Belgium's golden generation is aging but Kevin De Bruyne at his peak is still world-class. Iran's disciplined defense makes them strong second-place candidates over Egypt.
Group H — Spain, Uruguay, Saudi Arabia, Cape Verde
Key Player: Lamine Yamal (Spain) — just 18 at the time of the tournament, the Barcelona winger is already one of the world's best players. His partnership with Nico Williams is the most exciting in international football. Verdict: Spain cruise through. The Spain vs. Uruguay match will be a marquee group-stage game.
Group I — France, Senegal, Norway, Iraq
Key Player: Erling Haaland (Norway) — the Man City striker returns Norway to World Cup football for the first time since 1998. His ability to score against anyone makes Norway a genuine dark horse. Verdict: Group I is the most star-studded group in the tournament. France and Norway advance, but the France vs. Norway match could be one of the tournament's best games.
Group J — Argentina, Austria, Algeria, Jordan
Key Player: Lionel Messi (Argentina) — at 38 years old when the tournament starts, this is Messi's final World Cup. The defending champions will rally around him. Verdict: Argentina advance easily, potentially with a perfect record. Austria are solid but Austria vs. Algeria for second place could be tight.
Group K — Portugal, Colombia, Uzbekistan, DR Congo
Key Player: Bruno Fernandes (Portugal) — without Ronaldo, Fernandes is Portugal's undisputed leader. His creativity and work rate define the new Portugal era. Verdict: Portugal and Colombia advance comfortably. The question is which team tops the group — Colombia's Copa America form makes them a genuine threat to finish first.
Group L — England, Croatia, Ghana, Panama
Key Player: Jude Bellingham (England) — the Real Madrid midfielder is arguably the best player in the world heading into the tournament. His ability to dominate from midfield gives England a genuine edge. Verdict: England top the group easily. Croatia's Luka Modric will be playing his final World Cup at 40, but the Croatians always seem to have enough to advance.
Groups of Death: Deep Analysis
The Three Most Competitive Groups
In a 48-team World Cup, the traditional “group of death” concept is diluted — there are more groups and weaker teams filling spots. However, three groups stand out for the quality and unpredictability of their matches.
Group F: The Ultimate Group of Death
Netherlands, Japan, Sweden, and Tunisia is the most treacherous group in the tournament. Netherlands are the clear favorites at 3.4% overall World Cup odds, but Japan showed in Qatar 2022 that they can beat European heavyweights — they knocked out both Germany and Spain in the group stage. Sweden, meanwhile, feature Alexander Isak, one of the most in-form strikers in European football.
The mathematical reality: with four competitive teams across four games, expect at least one major result. Netherlands at 3.4% World Cup odds implies a roughly 35-40% chance of advancing from a group, meaning there is already a meaningful probability the Dutch exit early. Bettors who believe in Japan (1.5% WC odds) might find value in buying their shares before Group F results come in.
Group I: The Star-Studded Nightmare
France (12.7% WC odds) vs. Norway (2.9%) is the marquee group-stage clash of 2026. Both teams are expected to advance, but the battle for first place matters for knockout bracket positioning. Senegal — despite losing Mane to age — are a physical, disciplined team that could steal points. The France vs. Norway clash on what will likely be around June 20-22 is the single most anticipated group-stage game.
From a prediction market perspective: if Norway beats France in the group stage, expect Haaland's team to spike from 2.9% to perhaps 4-5% as the market prices the momentum signal. This is a clear potential trading opportunity for those who believe in Norway.
Group H: Spain's Toughest Test
As the overall favorites, Spain's path through Group H matters enormously. Uruguay — with Federico Valverde and Darwin Nunez — are a genuinely dangerous team that always overperforms at World Cups. A Spain vs. Uruguay loss would be a massive market-moving event, potentially shifting Spain from 16% down to 10-11%. Saudi Arabia shocked Argentina in 2022 and cannot be written off entirely.
Host Cities & Venues: All 16 Stadiums
The 2026 World Cup is the first to span three nations and use 16 venues. The spread across North America means different altitude conditions, climate zones, and travel logistics that can affect performance — factors serious bettors should account for.
Dark Horse Picks: Best Value Bets in the Market
A dark horse in prediction market terms means a team whose true probability of winning is higher than the market price implies. Here are PredScope's five most compelling dark horse cases, with analytical reasoning for each:
The case for Norway rests almost entirely on Erling Haaland, but that may be enough. Haaland is the most prolific scorer in Champions League history, scoring at a rate no other player has matched. Norway's group (France, Senegal, Iraq) has them advancing with reasonable probability. Once in the knockouts, a single Haaland goal can win any game. Norway at 2.9% means you pay $0.029 per share for a team that could realistically reach the final.
Risk: Norway's squad outside Haaland is significantly weaker than the top-tier teams. If he is injured or marked out of games, Norway become ordinary. Their defensive structure is also suspect against elite opponents.
Morocco reached the 2022 semifinal — a performance that permanently re-rated African football. They beat Spain and Portugal along the way, two teams in the top 4 favorites for 2026. Coach Walid Regragui has maintained defensive solidity while improving their attack. Achraf Hakimi is one of the best fullbacks in the world. Morocco have prior experience in pressure knockouts and no psychological ceiling.
Risk: Group C with Brazil is tough. Morocco need to come second, meaning their knockout path could be harder. If they face Spain or England early, they will be significant underdogs.
Host nation advantage is one of the most robust patterns in World Cup history. South Korea reached the semifinal as hosts in 2002. Russia reached the quarterfinal in 2018. The USA's home-crowd effect across 11 host cities, the emotional boost of playing in their own country, and a genuinely improved squad (Pulisic, Reyna, McKennie) create the conditions for a potential run. At 1.7%, the market may be undervaluing this structural advantage.
Risk: Group D includes Turkey, who are dangerous opponents. USA would likely face a top-4 team in the Round of 16. The talent gap with elite nations remains significant.
Colombia won the 2024 Copa America, beating Argentina along the way. James Rodriguez is back in form, and a young generation of Colombian talent (Arias, Lucumi, Diaz) gives them depth. They are placed in a group where Portugal may focus on topping the group — meaning Colombia have space to breathe. A Copa America winner with Haaland-level individual quality across multiple positions is extremely underpriced at 1.4%.
Risk: Colombia's World Cup history is inconsistent. They tend to be dependent on set-pieces and counter-attacks — a style that can be exposed against patient, technical teams in knockout rounds.
Japan knocked out both Germany and Spain at Qatar 2022 — the two most statistically likely champions before the tournament. Their pressing system, organized by coach Hajime Moriyasu, is legitimately elite against the high defensive lines of European teams. Players like Kubo, Ueda, and Doan are now established at top European clubs. Japan at 1.5% in a group with Netherlands may actually have a 25-30% chance of advancing — making their shares underpriced relative to their true advance probability.
Risk: Japan has historically underperformed in Round of 16 games despite strong group-stage results. Their squad depth is also limited compared to European powers.
Historical World Cup Prediction Market Analysis
Prediction markets for World Cups have existed in some form since at least 2002, but it is only with the rise of Polymarket (2020) and Kalshi (2021) that the volume has become large enough to draw meaningful conclusions. Here is what the historical record tells us about betting the World Cup via prediction markets:
Favorites Underperform Their Implied Odds
Across the last four World Cups (2010–2022), the pre-tournament betting favorite won only once (France in 2018). The pre-tournament favorite in Spain 2010, Germany 2014, Brazil 2018 (as host), and France 2022 all failed to win the title. This is a consistent pattern: in a format with multiple knockout elimination rounds, even a 20% favorite has an 80% chance of failure.
| World Cup | Pre-Tournament Favorite | Odds | Winner | Winner Pre-Tournament Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2006 | Brazil | ~18% | Italy | ~9% |
| 2010 | Brazil | ~15% | Spain | ~13% |
| 2014 | Brazil (host) | ~21% | Germany | ~12% |
| 2018 | Germany | ~18% | France | ~14% |
| 2022 | Brazil | ~16% | Argentina | ~13% |
| 2026 | Spain (current) | 16.1% | TBD | TBD |
The pattern: winners typically start in the 9-14% range — visible but not overwhelming favorites. Outright favorites (18%+) rarely win. Spain at 16.1% sits right at the historical threshold.
How Market Odds Move During Tournaments
Historical analysis of prediction market movement during World Cup tournaments shows consistent patterns that sophisticated traders can exploit:
- After group-stage wins: Winning teams see an average 15-25% odds increase. Losing teams see 40-60% odds collapse.
- After major upsets: The upset winner gains 80-150% (e.g., Japan beating Germany would likely move Japan from 1.5% to 3-4%). The loser collapses proportionally.
- Pre-semifinal: The four remaining teams see massive price compression. From 48 teams to 4, each survivor has roughly a 25% in-tournament probability. Teams priced below that represent potential value.
- The “narrative premium”: Popular teams (Brazil, Argentina, England) historically trade at a 2-5% premium relative to their underlying statistical probability. This creates sell opportunities when these teams advance.
The Value of Selling After Advancement
One underappreciated strategy in World Cup markets is selling winner shares after each advancement rather than holding to the final. If you buy Spain at 16.1% pre-tournament and they win Group H, their odds will likely rise to 22-25%. Selling at that point locks in a 37-55% gain without waiting for the final. Compare that to holding all the way — where you need Spain to navigate six consecutive wins to collect.
How to Bet on the 2026 World Cup via Prediction Markets
| Platform | World Cup Markets | Fees | US Legal | Min Deposit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 60 teams, winner only | ~1-2% | Yes (via QCX) | $1 (USDC) |
| Kalshi | Top 8 teams | $0 | Yes (CFTC) | $1 |
| Robinhood | Limited | $0 | Yes | $0 |
| DraftKings | Full sportsbook | Varies | State-by-state | $5 |
| FanDuel | Full sportsbook + Predicts | Varies | State-by-state | $5 |
Polymarket vs. Kalshi: Which Is Better for World Cup Betting?
Both platforms are legal for US users and both have World Cup markets, but they serve different use cases:
Polymarket is better if: You want maximum liquidity (60 teams, $449M+ in volume), the ability to trade any team from outsiders to favorites, and don't mind using USDC cryptocurrency. Polymarket's market is the most accurate reflection of the “wisdom of crowds” because of its scale.
Kalshi is better if: You want a CFTC-regulated exchange with no fees, don't want to deal with crypto, and are happy with markets on only the top 8 or so teams. Kalshi is simpler for traditional bettors transitioning from sports betting.
Step-by-Step: How to Trade World Cup Prediction Markets
- Choose a platform — Polymarket has the most liquid World Cup market ($449M+ volume)
- Fund your account — Buy USDC and deposit on Polymarket
- Buy shares — Each share pays $1 if your team wins, $0 if they don’t. Spain at 16.1% means you pay $0.161 per share
- Monitor & trade — Track odds movement on PredScope. You can sell shares anytime before the tournament ends
- Collect winnings — After the final, winning shares pay out $1 each. Withdraw your funds
World Cup Betting Strategies for Prediction Markets
The World Cup prediction market is one of the longest-running single-market events of the year, giving sophisticated traders many opportunities to enter, exit, and hedge positions. Here are strategies tailored specifically to the 2026 format:
Strategy 1: The Pre-Tournament Basket
Instead of picking a single winner, build a basket of 4-5 teams weighted toward your conviction. A typical basket: Spain (30%), England (20%), France (20%), Norway (15%), Japan (15%). Your total outlay is spread across multiple teams, and you only need one to win. This is lower variance than a single-team bet, but still offers meaningful upside. On Polymarket, you can hold multiple team contracts simultaneously.
Strategy 2: The Momentum Trade
Wait until after the group stage (June 27-28). At that point, 16 teams are eliminated and the field clarifies. Buy shares in 2-3 group winners who performed dominantly — these teams tend to have genuine structural momentum and the market sometimes underreacts to dominant group-stage performances. The best entry point is within 24-48 hours of the group stage ending, before the market fully adjusts.
Strategy 3: Buy the Upset Dip
When a top team loses in the group stage (e.g., Spain loses to Uruguay), their price collapses — often excessively. One group-stage loss does not mathematically eliminate a team from winning the World Cup, but the market reacts emotionally. France lost a game in the 2022 group stage and still reached the final. Identify teams whose collapse is overdone and buy the dip. This requires having cash reserves (buying stablecoins beforehand) ready to deploy.
Strategy 4: The Dark Horse Lottery
Allocate a small fixed budget (e.g., $20-50) to dark horses with the best analytical cases. At 1.5-3% odds, a $10 position in Japan, Morocco, and Norway costs $30 total. If any one of them wins, you collect $100. This is a high-variance, high-upside bet — the equivalent of buying lottery tickets but with actual analytical backing.
Strategy 5: The Sell-on-Advance
Buy a team pre-tournament and sell their shares immediately after they win a knockout round. Spain at 16.1% pre-tournament → 25% after advancing from Group H → 35% after reaching the quarterfinal. By selling at each stage, you lock in compounding gains without needing the team to go all the way to the final. This is the safest path to positive expected value in World Cup prediction markets.
Trade World Cup Markets on Polymarket
Join the $449M+ market. Buy shares in your predicted World Cup winner — and sell when the odds move in your favor.
Start Trading on Polymarket →PredScope Predictions: Knockout Stage Favorites
Based on our analysis of Polymarket odds, group draw positioning, squad depth, and historical World Cup patterns, here are PredScope's predictions for how the knockout stage shakes out:
PredScope's World Cup 2026 Bracket Predictions (as of April 1, 2026)
- Quarterfinal picks: Spain, France, England, Argentina, Brazil, Portugal, Netherlands, Norway
- Semifinal picks: Spain vs. England, France vs. Brazil
- Final: Spain vs. France
- PredScope Winner: Spain (17% true probability vs. 16.1% market — slight edge)
- Value pick: Norway at 2.9% (estimated true probability: 4-5%)
- Fade: Argentina at 9.6% (Messi at 39, aging squad, estimated true probability: 7-8%)
Our bracket prediction gives Spain the nod primarily because of their group draw (Group H is manageable), their tournament form since Euro 2024, and the fact that their squad's youth means they will be physically fresh throughout 39 days of competition. Lamine Yamal playing in a World Cup at 18 is one of the most extraordinary things that has happened in recent football, and the Polymarket market may not fully price in how generationally special he is.
France vs. Brazil in the semifinal is our marquee prediction — that would be an all-time game. Mbappé vs. Vinicius Jr., two of the world's best attacking players, in a World Cup semifinal would generate enormous TV audiences and trading volume on Polymarket as odds shift minute-by-minute.
The 48-Team Format: What Changes
The 2026 World Cup will be the first to feature 48 teams (up from 32), which fundamentally changes tournament dynamics:
- 12 groups of 4 — top 2 from each group advance, plus 8 best third-place teams (32 total in knockout)
- More games — 104 matches total (up from 64 in 2022)
- Higher variance — more knockout rounds means more upsets, benefiting dark horses
- Three host countries — matches spread across USA (60), Mexico (13), and Canada (13)
- New participants — teams like New Zealand, Jamaica, and Cape Verde qualifying for the first time (or first time in decades)
Where to Watch the Markets Move
PredScope tracks all 60 World Cup team markets in real time, pulling data directly from Polymarket every 10 minutes. Key features for World Cup traders:
- Live odds page — sorted by probability with 24-hour change indicators
- Volume tracker — see which teams are seeing the most trading activity
- Platform comparison — Polymarket vs. Kalshi odds side-by-side for World Cup markets
For context on how to interpret the numbers: also read our guides on prediction market accuracy and arbitrage opportunities between platforms.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who is the favorite to win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Spain leads Polymarket odds at 16.1%, followed by England (12.7%), France (12.7%), Argentina (9.6%), and Brazil (8.6%). These five nations account for about 60% of the total probability.
Where can I bet on the 2026 World Cup?
Polymarket has the largest World Cup market with $449M+ in volume and 60 team contracts. Kalshi offers CFTC-regulated markets, while traditional sportsbooks like DraftKings and FanDuel offer full-service World Cup betting in states where it's legal.
When is the 2026 World Cup?
June 11 to July 19, 2026. The opening match is at Estadio Azteca in Mexico City, and the final is at MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, New Jersey. The tournament runs 39 days total.
How accurate are prediction markets for the World Cup?
Research shows prediction markets consistently outperform expert forecasts and models for sports outcomes. With $449M in volume, the World Cup Polymarket market is one of the most liquid sports prediction markets ever, which typically improves accuracy through the “wisdom of crowds” effect. Read more in our accuracy analysis.
What are good dark horse picks?
Norway (2.9%) benefits from Erling Haaland's goalscoring, Morocco (1.6%) were 2022 semifinalists, and host nation USA (1.7%) gets home advantage. Japan (1.5%) has been impressive in recent tournaments and could upset in the expanded 48-team format. Colombia (1.4%) won the 2024 Copa America and may be undervalued.
How does the 48-team format affect World Cup betting?
The 48-team format adds more knockout rounds and introduces greater variance. Favorites historically won 20-25% of the time in 32-team World Cups; analysts estimate that drops to 15-20% with 48 teams. This means dark horses and mid-tier teams offer better value. The champion must win six consecutive knockout games instead of the previous standard of five knockout games after the group stage.
Is Polymarket legal for US users for World Cup betting?
Yes. Polymarket uses USDC on the Polygon blockchain and is accessible to US users via the QCX exchange integration. Kalshi is fully legal in the US as a CFTC-regulated exchange. Traditional sportsbooks like DraftKings and FanDuel are legal in states where sports betting is permitted.
Which World Cup 2026 groups are the hardest to predict?
Group F (Netherlands, Japan, Tunisia, Sweden) is the most competitive and unpredictable. Group I (France, Senegal, Norway, Iraq) is the most star-studded. Group H (Spain, Uruguay, Saudi Arabia, Cape Verde) is interesting because Uruguay are credible enough to cause problems for the favorites. Group D (USA, Australia, Paraguay, Turkey) will produce the most drama for home-nation fans.
What happened with Italy in the 2026 World Cup qualifiers?
Italy was eliminated by Bosnia & Herzegovina in a penalty shootout on March 31, 2026, during the UEFA playoff round. This is the third time in four World Cups that Italy has failed to qualify. Historically Italy traded at around 2.5% odds on Polymarket for World Cup winner — their elimination removed a meaningful probability node that has since been redistributed toward other European teams.
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