Polymarket vs Kalshi:
Live Prediction Market Comparison

Two platforms, thousands of markets, different odds. Compare Polymarket and Kalshi in real-time to find the best prices and spot arbitrage opportunities.

Last updated: May 14, 2026 at 20:55 UTC

Top Markets Right Now LIVE

Current odds from Polymarket, updated every 10 minutes. Volume shows real money at stake.

Market Top Odds Total Volume 24h Volume
2026 FIFA World Cup Winner 18% $981.1M $9.9M
Cavaliers vs. Pistons 100% $10.3M $8.9M
When will Bitcoin hit $150k? 10% $18.4M $5.8M
Eurovision Winner 2026 44% $163.1M $4.8M
Brazil Presidential Election 42% $75.7M $3.7M
Elon Musk # tweets May 8 - May 15, 2026? 53% $10.9M $3.4M
Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028 24% $1141.9M $3.1M
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs JD Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group A 100% $2.9M $2.9M
Bitcoin above ___ on May 14? 100% $3.7M $2.7M
LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs KT Rolster (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1 100% $2.2M $2.2M
Indian Premier League: Punjab Kings vs Mumbai Indi 100% $2.0M $2.0M
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Rafael Jodar vs Lucia 100% $2.3M $1.9M
Real Madrid CF vs. Real Oviedo 88% $1.9M $1.9M
2026 PGA Championship Winner 26% $2.3M $1.9M
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Martin Landaluce vs D 100% $1.9M $1.8M

When Should You Use Each Platform?

Polymarket vs Kalshi: Full Comparison

FeaturePolymarketKalshi
Founded20202021
RegulationUnregulated (crypto)CFTC-regulated
CurrencyUSDC (Polygon)USD
Trading Fees0%~2% on winnings
Total Markets10,000+2,000+
Total Volume (all time)$20B+$3B+
AvailabilityGlobal (crypto wallet)US only (42+ states)
Deposit MethodsCrypto wallet (USDC)Bank, debit card, crypto
Min Bet$1$1
Max BetNo limit$25,000 typical
Mobile AppiOS + AndroidiOS + Android
API AccessFree, comprehensiveLimited
Category StrengthCrypto, politics, cultureEconomics, politics, weather

What is Prediction Market Arbitrage?

When Polymarket and Kalshi show different prices for the same event, an arbitrage opportunity exists. For example, if Polymarket prices "Event X" at 60¢ YES and Kalshi prices it at 72¢ YES, the 12¢ difference suggests one platform's crowd may be wrong.

Experienced traders watch for these cross-platform gaps and bet on the platform offering better value. Gaps of 5-15¢ are common during breaking news or volatile events.

PredScope tracks these differences automatically, updating every 10 minutes with the latest Polymarket data.

Browse Markets by Category

Politics Crypto Sports Geopolitics Economy Culture

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the difference between Polymarket and Kalshi?

Polymarket is a crypto-based prediction market with zero trading fees and global access. It uses USDC on the Polygon network. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated platform based in the US, accepting USD deposits. Polymarket typically has higher liquidity and more markets, while Kalshi offers regulatory protection for US traders.

Which is better for beginners?

Kalshi is generally easier for US-based beginners because it accepts bank deposits and credit cards without requiring crypto knowledge. Polymarket requires a crypto wallet and USDC, but once set up, offers a simpler trading interface and zero fees.

Can you profit from prediction market arbitrage?

Yes. When platforms show different prices for the same event, traders can potentially profit from the difference. Price gaps of 5-15¢ occur regularly, especially during breaking news. However, arbitrage requires capital on both platforms and careful risk management.

How accurate are prediction markets?

Research shows prediction markets with significant liquidity (>$100K volume) are generally well-calibrated, with median forecast errors of 3-5%. Markets with higher volume tend to be more accurate because more informed traders participate. When platforms disagree significantly, the one with more liquidity is usually more accurate.