Polymarket vs Kalshi:
Live Prediction Market Comparison

Two platforms, thousands of markets, different odds. Compare Polymarket and Kalshi in real-time to find the best prices and spot arbitrage opportunities.

Last updated: Mar 30, 2026 at 18:43 UTC

Top Markets Right Now LIVE

Current odds from Polymarket, updated every 10 minutes. Volume shows real money at stake.

Market Top Odds Total Volume 24h Volume
2026 FIFA World Cup Winner 16% $430.3M $16.7M
Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028 24% $942.7M $8.6M
US forces enter Iran by..? 76% $54.8M $7.5M
Warriors vs. Nuggets 100% $7.4M $7.1M
Republican Presidential Nominee 2028 49% $496.1M $7.1M
Presidential Election Winner 2028 17% $475.1M $5.9M
Netanyahu out by...? 42% $89.4M $5.8M
Connecticut Huskies vs. Duke Blue Devils 100% $6.6M $5.4M
Heat vs. Pacers 100% $6.3M $4.9M
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit__ by end of March? 100% $76.3M $4.5M
Bitcoin above ___ on March 30? 100% $5.0M $4.0M
Knicks vs. Thunder 100% $4.3M $3.8M
What price will Bitcoin hit in March? 100% $97.6M $3.6M
Celtics vs. Hornets 100% $5.4M $3.3M
US x Iran ceasefire by...? 72% $64.1M $3.3M

When Should You Use Each Platform?

Polymarket vs Kalshi: Full Comparison

FeaturePolymarketKalshi
Founded20202021
RegulationUnregulated (crypto)CFTC-regulated
CurrencyUSDC (Polygon)USD
Trading Fees0%~2% on winnings
Total Markets10,000+2,000+
Total Volume (all time)$20B+$3B+
AvailabilityGlobal (crypto wallet)US only (42+ states)
Deposit MethodsCrypto wallet (USDC)Bank, debit card, crypto
Min Bet$1$1
Max BetNo limit$25,000 typical
Mobile AppiOS + AndroidiOS + Android
API AccessFree, comprehensiveLimited
Category StrengthCrypto, politics, cultureEconomics, politics, weather

What is Prediction Market Arbitrage?

When Polymarket and Kalshi show different prices for the same event, an arbitrage opportunity exists. For example, if Polymarket prices "Event X" at 60¢ YES and Kalshi prices it at 72¢ YES, the 12¢ difference suggests one platform's crowd may be wrong.

Experienced traders watch for these cross-platform gaps and bet on the platform offering better value. Gaps of 5-15¢ are common during breaking news or volatile events.

PredScope tracks these differences automatically, updating every 10 minutes with the latest Polymarket data.

Browse Markets by Category

Politics Crypto Sports Geopolitics Economy Culture

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the difference between Polymarket and Kalshi?

Polymarket is a crypto-based prediction market with zero trading fees and global access. It uses USDC on the Polygon network. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated platform based in the US, accepting USD deposits. Polymarket typically has higher liquidity and more markets, while Kalshi offers regulatory protection for US traders.

Which is better for beginners?

Kalshi is generally easier for US-based beginners because it accepts bank deposits and credit cards without requiring crypto knowledge. Polymarket requires a crypto wallet and USDC, but once set up, offers a simpler trading interface and zero fees.

Can you profit from prediction market arbitrage?

Yes. When platforms show different prices for the same event, traders can potentially profit from the difference. Price gaps of 5-15¢ occur regularly, especially during breaking news. However, arbitrage requires capital on both platforms and careful risk management.

How accurate are prediction markets?

Research shows prediction markets with significant liquidity (>$100K volume) are generally well-calibrated, with median forecast errors of 3-5%. Markets with higher volume tend to be more accurate because more informed traders participate. When platforms disagree significantly, the one with more liquidity is usually more accurate.