This market will resolve according to the national team that wins the 2026 FIFA World Cup. If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”. If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
| # | Outcome | Probability | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Spain | 16% | $5.7M |
| 2 | England | 13% | $6.6M |
| 3 | France | 12% | $4.4M |
| 4 | Argentina | 10% | $6.8M |
| 5 | Brazil | 9% | $6.4M |
| 6 | Portugal | 7% | $8.1M |
| 7 | Germany | 5% | $6.8M |
| 8 | Netherlands | 3% | $9.0M |
| 9 | Norway | 3% | $7.4M |
| 10 | Italy | 2% | $7.7M |
| 11 | Belgium | 2% | $7.5M |
| 12 | Colombia | 2% | $7.1M |
| 13 | USA | 2% | $4.7M |
| 14 | Morocco | 2% | $8.8M |
| 15 | Japan | 1% | $8.6M |
| 16 | Uruguay | 1% | $7.4M |
| 17 | Mexico | 1% | $6.7M |
| 18 | Croatia | 1% | $7.9M |
| 19 | Switzerland | 1% | $8.2M |
| 20 | Ecuador | 1% | $8.8M |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
As of Mar 30, 2026 at 18:48 UTC, the leading outcome is Spain at 16% probability, with $430.3M in total trading volume on Polymarket.
The total trading volume for this market is $430.3M, with $16.5M traded in the last 24 hours. This represents real money at stake from prediction market traders on Polymarket.
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