Election Odds Live Tracker

Real-money prediction market odds on elections worldwide. 105 active political markets tracked from Polymarket, updated every 10 minutes.

105
Political Markets
$2794.5M
Total Volume
$59.7M
24h Volume

Presidential & Nominee Markets

Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028

Gavin Newsom
24%
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
8%
Jon Ossoff
6%
Kamala Harris
4%
Josh Shapiro
4%
24h: $8.6M Total: $942.7M Ends: Nov 07, 2028

Republican Presidential Nominee 2028▲ +2%

Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
49%
J.D. Vance
36%
Marco Rubio
20%
Tucker Carlson
5%
Ron DeSantis
3%
24h: $7.1M Total: $496.1M Ends: Nov 07, 2028

Presidential Election Winner 2028

JD Vance
17%
Gavin Newsom
17%
Marco Rubio
10%
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
6%
Jon Ossoff
3%
24h: $5.9M Total: $475.1M Ends: Nov 07, 2028

Brazil Presidential Election▼ -1%

Flávio Bolsonaro
42%
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
42%
Renan Santos
6%
Fernando Haddad
6%
Tarcisio de Freitas
1%
24h: $781K Total: $33.8M Ends: Oct 04, 2026

Next President of Vietnam

Tô Lâm
92%
Trần Thanh Mẫn
6%
Phan Văn Giang
1%
24h: $516K Total: $27.5M Ends: Jan 25, 2026

Next French Presidential Election▼ -1%

Édouard Philippe
26%
Jordan Bardella
24%
Jean-Luc Mélenchon
8%
Marine Le Pen
6%
Dominique de Villepin
5%
24h: $1.2M Total: $23.9M Ends: Apr 30, 2027

Election Markets

Presidential Election Winner 2028

JD Vance
17%
Gavin Newsom
17%
Marco Rubio
10%
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
6%
Jon Ossoff
3%
24h: $5.9M Total: $475.1M Ends: Nov 07, 2028

Hungary Parliamentary Election Winner▼ -2%

TISZA
66%
Fidesz-KDNP
34%
24h: $1.3M Total: $50.4M Ends: Apr 12, 2026

Brazil Presidential Election▼ -1%

Flávio Bolsonaro
42%
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
42%
Renan Santos
6%
Fernando Haddad
6%
Tarcisio de Freitas
1%
24h: $781K Total: $33.8M Ends: Oct 04, 2026

Next French Presidential Election▼ -1%

Édouard Philippe
26%
Jordan Bardella
24%
Jean-Luc Mélenchon
8%
Marine Le Pen
6%
Dominique de Villepin
5%
24h: $1.2M Total: $23.9M Ends: Apr 30, 2027

Texas Republican Senate Primary Winner▲ +2%

Ken Paxton
64%
John Cornyn
32%
24h: $87K Total: $13.1M Ends: May 26, 2026

2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Winner▲ +2%

Chong Won-oh
80%
Oh Se-hoon
12%
Park Ju-min
6%
24h: $908K Total: $9.1M Ends: Jun 03, 2026

All Political Prediction Markets

Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028

Gavin Newsom
24%
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
8%
Jon Ossoff
6%
Kamala Harris
4%
Josh Shapiro
4%
24h: $8.6M Total: $942.7M Ends: Nov 07, 2028

Republican Presidential Nominee 2028▲ +2%

Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
49%
J.D. Vance
36%
Marco Rubio
20%
Tucker Carlson
5%
Ron DeSantis
3%
24h: $7.1M Total: $496.1M Ends: Nov 07, 2028

Presidential Election Winner 2028

JD Vance
17%
Gavin Newsom
17%
Marco Rubio
10%
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
6%
Jon Ossoff
3%
24h: $5.9M Total: $475.1M Ends: Nov 07, 2028

Netanyahu out by...?▼ -6%

December 31
42%
June 30
12%
April 30
3%
24h: $5.8M Total: $89.4M Ends: Dec 31, 2026

Venezuela leader end of 2026?▲ +2%

Delcy Rodríguez
64%
Nicolás Maduro
16%
María Corina Machado
14%
Edmundo González
1%
Diosdado Cabello Rondón
1%
24h: $298K Total: $78.6M Ends: Dec 31, 2026

US x Iran ceasefire by...?

December 31
72%
June 30
58%
May 31
48%
April 30
30%
April 15
18%
24h: $3.3M Total: $64.1M

Hungary Parliamentary Election Winner▼ -2%

TISZA
66%
Fidesz-KDNP
34%
24h: $1.3M Total: $50.4M Ends: Apr 12, 2026

Next Prime Minister of Hungary▲ +2%

Péter Magyar
64%
Viktor Orbán
36%
24h: $617K Total: $39.5M Ends: Apr 12, 2026

Fed decision in April?▼ -3%

No change
97%
25+ bps increase
1%
25 bps decrease
1%
24h: $2.1M Total: $39.0M Ends: Apr 29, 2026

Brazil Presidential Election▼ -1%

Flávio Bolsonaro
42%
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
42%
Renan Santos
6%
Fernando Haddad
6%
Tarcisio de Freitas
1%
24h: $781K Total: $33.8M Ends: Oct 04, 2026

Next President of Vietnam

Tô Lâm
92%
Trần Thanh Mẫn
6%
Phan Văn Giang
1%
24h: $516K Total: $27.5M Ends: Jan 25, 2026

Next French Presidential Election▼ -1%

Édouard Philippe
26%
Jordan Bardella
24%
Jean-Luc Mélenchon
8%
Marine Le Pen
6%
Dominique de Villepin
5%
24h: $1.2M Total: $23.9M Ends: Apr 30, 2027

Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?▲ +2%

Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
16%
24h: $657K Total: $22.9M Ends: Jun 30, 2026

Will the US confirm that aliens exist by...?

December 31
16%
24h: $426K Total: $22.0M Ends: Dec 31, 2026

What will happen before GTA VI?▲ +5%

Drake releases Iceman
91%
New Rihanna Album
60%
GPT-6 released
60%
New Playboi Carti Album
58%
Russia-Ukraine Ceasefire
54%
24h: $30K Total: $19.8M Ends: Jul 31, 2026

Will Trump visit China by...?▼ -5%

June 30
82%
May 31
74%
April 30, 2026
2%
24h: $1.6M Total: $18.3M Ends: Apr 30, 2026

Next Prime Minister of Vietnam▲ +3%

Lê Minh Hưng
95%
Trần Lưu Quang
4%
24h: $605K Total: $15.7M Ends: Jan 25, 2026

Who will be confirmed as Fed Chair?

Kevin Warsh
95%
Judy Shelton
2%
Michelle Bowman
1%
Jerome Powell
1%
24h: $229K Total: $15.7M Ends: Oct 31, 2026

Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?

Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
10%
24h: $359K Total: $14.7M Ends: Dec 31, 2026

Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?

Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30
6%
24h: $421K Total: $13.1M Ends: Apr 30, 2026

Texas Republican Senate Primary Winner▲ +2%

Ken Paxton
64%
John Cornyn
32%
24h: $87K Total: $13.1M Ends: May 26, 2026

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 202
28%
24h: $76K Total: $12.4M Ends: Dec 31, 2026

Elon Musk # tweets March 27 - April 3, 2026?

240-259
21%
260-279
18%
220-239
15%
280-299
14%
300-319
10%
24h: $1.0M Total: $12.4M Ends: Apr 03, 2026

Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?

Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027
34%
24h: $172K Total: $12.2M Ends: Dec 31, 2026

Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026

Volodymyr Zelenskyy
11%
Yulia Navalnaya
10%
Donald Trump
8%
Pope Leo XIV
4%
International Court of Justice
4%
24h: $183K Total: $11.9M Ends: Oct 10, 2026

Which countries will conduct military action against Iran by March 31?

Saudi Arabia
2%
UAE
2%
Qatar
1%
Bahrain
1%
Jordan
1%
24h: $224K Total: $10.9M Ends: Mar 31, 2026

Starmer out by...?

December 31
62%
June 30
36%
April 30
5%
24h: $64K Total: $10.3M Ends: Dec 31, 2025

Elon Musk # tweets March 24 - March 31, 2026?

220-239
56%
240-259
32%
260-279
6%
200-219
5%
280-299
1%
24h: $2.4M Total: $9.8M Ends: Mar 31, 2026

Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?

June 30
44%
May 31
40%
April 30
32%
March 31
1%
24h: $636K Total: $9.3M Ends: Mar 31, 2026

2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Winner▲ +2%

Chong Won-oh
80%
Oh Se-hoon
12%
Park Ju-min
6%
24h: $908K Total: $9.1M Ends: Jun 03, 2026

Why Use Prediction Markets for Election Forecasting?

Prediction markets aggregate the knowledge of thousands of traders who put real money behind their beliefs. Unlike opinion polls, which sample a small group and can suffer from response bias, prediction markets incentivize accuracy — you lose money if you're wrong.

In the 2024 US presidential election, Polymarket's odds correctly reflected the eventual winner when polls showed a statistical dead heat. Prediction markets have historically outperformed expert forecasts and polls, especially as election day approaches.

How to read election odds: If a candidate trades at 65¢, the market collectively estimates a 65% probability of winning. Prices move in real-time as news breaks and sentiment shifts.