Real-money prediction market odds on elections worldwide. 84 active political markets tracked from Polymarket, updated every 10 minutes.
Prediction markets aggregate the knowledge of thousands of traders who put real money behind their beliefs. Unlike opinion polls, which sample a small group and can suffer from response bias, prediction markets incentivize accuracy — you lose money if you're wrong.
In the 2024 US presidential election, Polymarket's odds correctly reflected the eventual winner when polls showed a statistical dead heat. Prediction markets have historically outperformed expert forecasts and polls, especially as election day approaches.
How to read election odds: If a candidate trades at 65¢, the market collectively estimates a 65% probability of winning. Prices move in real-time as news breaks and sentiment shifts.