Ranked by trading volume, fees, market selection, and features. Updated March 2026.
| # | Platform | Best For | Fees | US Access |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Polymarket | Overall best, highest volume | Free | Limited |
| 2 | Kalshi | US traders, regulated | Profit-based | Yes |
| 3 | Metaculus | Forecasting accuracy | Free | Yes |
| 4 | Manifold | Community markets | Free | Yes |
| 5 | PredictIt | Legacy (winding down) | 10% + 5% | Yes |
| 6 | Augur/Turbo | Decentralized, no KYC | Varies | Yes* |
| 7 | Insight Prediction | US alternative | Low | Yes |
We evaluated prediction market platforms across five criteria:
Polymarket is the undisputed leader in prediction markets by every meaningful metric. With over $1 billion in total trading volume, it offers the deepest liquidity, tightest spreads, and most diverse market selection of any platform. The CLOB (Central Limit Order Book) matching engine provides professional-grade trading, and zero fees make it accessible to everyone.
Best for: International traders who want the widest selection and best prices. Read our complete Polymarket guide.
Kalshi is the only CFTC-regulated prediction market exchange in the United States, making it the clear choice for US-based traders who want legal certainty. It accepts USD deposits via bank transfer and offers markets on economics, politics, weather, and current events.
Best for: US residents who want regulated, legal prediction market trading. Read our complete Kalshi guide.
Metaculus is a forecasting platform rather than a traditional prediction market — you don't trade with real money. Instead, forecasters earn reputation points based on accuracy. This makes it excellent for people who want to practice forecasting or contribute to public knowledge without financial risk.
Best for: Aspiring forecasters, researchers, and people who want accuracy data without financial risk.
Manifold stands out by letting anyone create markets on anything — no approval needed. It uses both play money (Mana) and sweepstakes-style prizes. The platform has a vibrant community of rationalists and tech workers, with markets covering everything from AI timelines to office gossip.
Best for: Community engagement, niche topics, and people who want to create their own markets.
PredictIt was once the most popular US prediction market, operated by Victoria University of Wellington under CFTC no-action relief. However, the CFTC ordered it to wind down in 2023. While some markets remain active, it's no longer accepting new deposits or creating new markets. Included here for historical context.
Status: Not recommended for new users. Existing traders should withdraw funds when markets resolve.
Augur pioneered decentralized prediction markets using Ethereum smart contracts. The newer Augur Turbo iteration improved usability. Being fully decentralized means no single entity can censor markets or freeze funds — but it also means lower liquidity and a more complex user experience.
Best for: Crypto-native users who prioritize decentralization and censorship resistance.
Insight Prediction is a newer entrant targeting the US market with crypto-based prediction trading. It's attempting to fill the gap left by PredictIt's wind-down, offering political and economic markets with competitive fees and growing liquidity.
Best for: US traders looking for an alternative to Kalshi with crypto deposits.
| Feature | Polymarket | Kalshi | Metaculus | Manifold |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Money | Yes (USDC) | Yes (USD) | No | Play + Sweeps |
| Trading Fees | 0% | On profits | N/A | N/A |
| US Access | Limited | Full | Full | Full |
| KYC Required | Yes | Yes | No | No |
| Mobile App | No | Yes | No | Yes |
| Create Markets | No | No | Yes | Yes |
| Regulation | None | CFTC | N/A | N/A |
| Best Category | All | Economics | Science/AI | Niche/Fun |
PredScope aggregates live odds from Polymarket — updated every 10 minutes.
Browse Live Markets Compare PlatformsPolymarket is the most popular prediction market by trading volume, with over $1 billion traded. It gained mainstream attention during the 2024 US Presidential election when it became a widely-cited source for election odds.
It depends on the platform. Polymarket charges zero trading fees. Kalshi charges fees on profitable positions when markets resolve. PredictIt charged 10% on profits and 5% on withdrawals. Always check the fee structure before trading.
This is debated. Legally, CFTC-regulated markets like Kalshi are classified as derivatives exchanges, not gambling. However, some jurisdictions treat prediction markets as gambling. Read our detailed analysis of the legal classification.
For absolute beginners, Metaculus or Manifold are best because they don't require real money. When you're ready to trade with real money, Kalshi (for US users) or Polymarket (international) offer the best experiences. Start with our beginner's guide.