Prediction Market Calculator

Free tools for prediction market traders. Convert odds, calculate expected value, and find arbitrage opportunities.

How Prediction Market Odds Work

In prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi, each contract trades between $0.01 and $0.99. The price directly represents the market's implied probability. A contract trading at 65¢ means the market collectively estimates a 65% chance the event will happen.

If the event happens, the contract pays $1.00. If it doesn't, it pays $0. Your profit is the difference between your buy price and $1.00 (if correct) or your loss is your buy price (if wrong).

Example: Buy at 45¢, event happens → you receive $1.00, profit = 55¢ per share (122% return). Event doesn't happen → you lose 45¢ per share.