Political Prediction Markets

Live odds on elections, presidential races, and political events. Track real-money predictions from thousands of traders.

Political prediction markets let traders put real money behind their forecasts for elections, legislation, and government actions. Unlike traditional polls, these markets aggregate the wisdom of thousands of participants with skin in the game — making them among the most accurate forecasting tools available. From presidential primaries to congressional races and Supreme Court decisions, political prediction markets provide real-time probability estimates that update 24/7 as news breaks.

76
Active Events
$15.4M
24h Volume

All Political Prediction Markets

Presidential Election Winner 2028

JD Vance
23%
Marco Rubio
13%
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
13%
Jon Ossoff
9%
Gavin Newsom
9%
24h: $2.2M Total: $683.8M Ends: Nov 07, 2028

Fed Decision in September?▲ +5%

No change
72%
25 bps increase
28%
25 bps decrease
1%
24h: $2.1M Total: $32.1M Ends: Sep 16, 2026

Clacton by-election: Nigel Farage Vote %▲ +63%

Farage 60–70%
100%
24h: $1.4M Total: $1.6M Ends: Jun 30, 2027

Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028▲ +3%

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
22%
Gavin Newsom
17%
Jon Ossoff
15%
Kamala Harris
7%
Pete Buttigieg
5%
24h: $1.2M Total: $1257.8M Ends: Nov 07, 2028

Next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?

Abiy Ahmed
95%
Gedion Timothewos
2%
Alesa Mengesha
1%
Berhanu Nega
1%
Adanech Abiebie
1%
24h: $1.2M Total: $276.1M Ends: Jun 01, 2026

Elon Musk # tweets August 7 - August 14, 2026?▲ +79%

180-199
94%
200-219
4%
24h: $966K Total: $3.1M Ends: Aug 14, 2026

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by...?

August 31
2%
24h: $947K Total: $19.9M Ends: Aug 31, 2026

US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?▼ -13%

December 31
80%
October 31
66%
September 30
50%
August 31
22%
August 22
12%
24h: $694K Total: $14.0M Ends: Aug 31, 2026

Clacton by-election Winner

Nigel Farage
100%
Person E
50%
Person F
50%
Person G
50%
Person H
50%
24h: $671K Total: $5.7M Ends: Aug 13, 2026

Elon Musk # tweets August 11 - August 18, 2026?▼ -11%

200-219
24%
180-199
22%
220-239
20%
160-179
12%
240-259
12%
24h: $205K Total: $694K Ends: Aug 18, 2026

Republican Presidential Nominee 2028▲ +4%

Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
49%
J.D. Vance
47%
Marco Rubio
23%
Ron DeSantis
3%
Tucker Carlson
2%
24h: $194K Total: $687.4M Ends: Nov 07, 2028

Which party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?▼ -4%

United Russia (ER)
70%
New People (NL)
21%
Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR
6%
Communist Party of the Russian Federatio
2%
24h: $194K Total: $19.2M Ends: Sep 20, 2026

Brazil Presidential Election

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
64%
Flávio Bolsonaro
29%
Renan Santos
7%
Jair Bolsonaro
1%
Ronaldo Caiado
1%
24h: $180K Total: $122.8M Ends: Oct 04, 2026

Elon Musk # tweets August 13 - August 15, 2026?▼ -42%

65-89
56%
90-114
29%
40-64
12%
115-139
5%
24h: $176K Total: $260K Ends: Aug 15, 2026

Florida Governor Republican Primary Winner

Byron Donalds
98%
James Fishback
2%
24h: $147K Total: $3.6M Ends: Aug 18, 2026

Clacton by-election: 2nd place▲ +2%

Count Binface
100%
Person J
50%
Person K
50%
Person L
50%
Person M
50%
24h: $147K Total: $749K Ends: Aug 13, 2026

Clacton by-election: Count Binface Vote %▲ +63%

Binface 20–30%
100%
24h: $137K Total: $542K Ends: Aug 13, 2026

Total Internet Blackout in Iran by...?

July 31
100%
24h: $132K Total: $132K Ends: Jul 31, 2026

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to norm
14%
24h: $128K Total: $3.2M Ends: Sep 30, 2026

Putin out as President of Russia by...?

June 30, 2027
12%
December 31, 2026
8%
September 30, 2026
2%
August 31, 2026
1%
24h: $125K Total: $20.4M Ends: Jun 30, 2027

Who will be the next Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?▼ -3%

Gadi Eizenkot
53%
Benjamin Netanyahu
28%
Naftali Bennett
6%
Avigdor Lieberman
5%
Moshe Feiglin
1%
24h: $119K Total: $32.0M Ends: Dec 31, 2026

Clacton by-election: Margin of Victory▲ +87%

Farage 20-40%
99%
24h: $116K Total: $262K Ends: Aug 13, 2026

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to norm
46%
24h: $102K Total: $8.0M Ends: Dec 31, 2026

Next French Presidential Election

Marine Le Pen
31%
Édouard Philippe
26%
Jean-Luc Mélenchon
14%
Gabriel Attal
4%
François Hollande
4%
24h: $99K Total: $119.0M Ends: Apr 30, 2027

Trump out as President by August 31?

Trump out as President by August 31?
1%
24h: $92K Total: $1.5M Ends: Aug 31, 2026

Will Trump publicly insult someone on...?▼ -87%

August 1
100%
August 3
100%
August 4
100%
August 5
100%
August 6
100%
24h: $88K Total: $164K Ends: Aug 31, 2026

Next round of US-Iran peace talks by...?▼ -7%

September 30
36%
August 31
12%
24h: $80K Total: $9.2M Ends: Jul 31, 2026

Where will the next next round of US-Iran peace talks be...?▲ +7%

No Meeting by September 30
63%
Switzerland
12%
Pakistan
12%
Qatar
8%
Oman
3%
24h: $73K Total: $4.2M Ends: Sep 30, 2026

Elon Musk # tweets August 14 - August 21, 2026?

180-199
20%
160-179
18%
200-219
18%
220-239
14%
140-159
10%
24h: $69K Total: $209K Ends: Aug 21, 2026

Wyoming Governor Republican Primary Winner▼ -9%

Eric Barlow
77%
Megan Degenfelder
22%
Brent Bien
1%
24h: $61K Total: $193K Ends: Aug 18, 2026

Frequently Asked Questions

How accurate are political prediction markets?

Political prediction markets have historically outperformed polls and expert forecasts. Research shows they correctly predicted presidential election outcomes with greater accuracy than major polling averages. Because traders risk real money, they're incentivized to seek out the best information rather than express wishful thinking.

Can I trade on political prediction markets?

Yes. Platforms like Polymarket allow you to buy shares in political outcomes. If you believe an event is more likely than the current price suggests, you buy Yes shares. If it occurs, you receive $1 per share. Polymarket is available to users in most countries outside the US for political markets.

What political events can I bet on?

You can trade on presidential elections, congressional races, Supreme Court decisions, legislation passage, cabinet appointments, impeachment proceedings, and more. New political markets are added frequently as events develop.

Learn More

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