Political Prediction Markets

Live odds on elections, presidential races, and political events. Track real-money predictions from thousands of traders.

Political prediction markets let traders put real money behind their forecasts for elections, legislation, and government actions. Unlike traditional polls, these markets aggregate the wisdom of thousands of participants with skin in the game — making them among the most accurate forecasting tools available. From presidential primaries to congressional races and Supreme Court decisions, political prediction markets provide real-time probability estimates that update 24/7 as news breaks.

88
Active Events
$30.9M
24h Volume

All Political Prediction Markets

Next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?

Abiy Ahmed
97%
24h: $10.8M Total: $95.6M Ends: Jun 01, 2026

Fed Decision in July?▲ +2%

No change
80%
25 bps increase
18%
25 bps decrease
1%
50+ bps decrease
1%
24h: $3.3M Total: $25.8M Ends: Jul 29, 2026

Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028

Gavin Newsom
20%
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
10%
Jon Ossoff
9%
Kamala Harris
6%
Josh Shapiro
5%
24h: $1.6M Total: $1218.3M Ends: Nov 07, 2028

Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban)

Starmer - UK PM
92%
Petro - Colombia President
3%
Díaz-Canel - Cuba President
1%
Abbas - President of Palestine
1%
24h: $1.6M Total: $8.2M Ends: Dec 31, 2026

Elon Musk # tweets June 23 - June 30, 2026?▲ +46%

240-259
60%
260-279
32%
280-299
5%
220-239
2%
300-319
1%
24h: $1.1M Total: $4.8M Ends: Jun 30, 2026

Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?

Putin out as President of Russia by Dece
12%
24h: $997K Total: $11.1M Ends: Dec 31, 2026

Next round of US-Iran peace talks by...?▲ +23%

July 31
74%
July 17
68%
July 10
47%
July 3
34%
24h: $893K Total: $1.6M Ends: Jul 31, 2026

Elon Musk # tweets June 27 - June 29, 2026?▲ +77%

40-64
100%
24h: $823K Total: $1.3M Ends: Jun 29, 2026

US forces enter Venezuela again by...?

June 30
100%
24h: $819K Total: $3.0M Ends: Jun 30, 2026

Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by...?▲ +8%

June 30, 2026
99%
24h: $786K Total: $1.0M Ends: Jun 30, 2026

Presidential Election Winner 2028

JD Vance
20%
Marco Rubio
14%
Gavin Newsom
12%
Jon Ossoff
6%
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
5%
24h: $591K Total: $641.3M Ends: Nov 07, 2028

Elon Musk # tweets June 26 - July 3, 2026?▼ -17%

220-239
24%
240-259
23%
200-219
18%
260-279
14%
180-199
8%
24h: $507K Total: $1.8M Ends: Jul 03, 2026

What will Trump say during the Faith & Freedom Coalition Conference?

Israel / Jerusalem
100%
Iran 3+ times
100%
Venezuela
100%
Hottest
100%
One Nation
100%
24h: $455K Total: $2.6M Ends: Jun 26, 2026

Brazil Presidential Election▲ +1%

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
56%
Flávio Bolsonaro
24%
Renan Santos
13%
Michelle Bolsonaro
4%
Ronaldo Caiado
1%
24h: $436K Total: $107.6M Ends: Oct 04, 2026

Where will the next next round of US-Iran peace talks be...?▲ +37%

Qatar
68%
Switzerland
21%
No Meeting by September 30
5%
Pakistan
4%
Turkey
1%
24h: $419K Total: $775K Ends: Sep 30, 2026

Who will be the next Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?

Gadi Eizenkot
42%
Benjamin Netanyahu
35%
Naftali Bennett
12%
Avigdor Lieberman
4%
Itamar Ben Gvir
1%
24h: $394K Total: $22.5M Ends: Dec 31, 2026

Next French Presidential Election

Jordan Bardella
26%
Édouard Philippe
18%
Jean-Luc Mélenchon
12%
Marine Le Pen
8%
Gabriel Attal
3%
24h: $372K Total: $105.9M Ends: Apr 30, 2027

Iran leadership change by...?▼ -2%

July 31
36%
December 31
15%
September 30
8%
24h: $353K Total: $19.0M Ends: Dec 31, 2026

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?▼ -3%

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to norm
16%
24h: $283K Total: $5.1M Ends: Jul 15, 2026

Which countries will recognize Israel by June 30?▲ +7%

Lebanon
33%
Venezuela
2%
Saudi Arabia
1%
Qatar
1%
24h: $276K Total: $1.1M Ends: Jun 30, 2026

Republican Presidential Nominee 2028

Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
49%
J.D. Vance
38%
Marco Rubio
22%
Tucker Carlson
4%
Donald Trump Jr.
3%
24h: $272K Total: $665.9M Ends: Nov 07, 2028

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?▼ -2%

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to norm
38%
24h: $193K Total: $10.8M Ends: Jul 31, 2026

Peru Presidential Election Winner

Keiko Fujimori
99%
24h: $184K Total: $106.1M Ends: Apr 12, 2026

Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by...?

December 31
14%
24h: $170K Total: $2.2M Ends: Dec 31, 2026

Which party will win the House in 2026?

Democratic Party
82%
Republican Party
18%
24h: $165K Total: $8.0M Ends: Nov 03, 2026

Which party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?

United Russia (ER)
58%
New People (NL)
32%
Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR
6%
Communist Party of the Russian Federatio
2%
24h: $154K Total: $13.5M Ends: Sep 20, 2026

Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?

Will China invade Taiwan by December 31,
14%
24h: $134K Total: $1.3M Ends: Dec 31, 2027

Total Internet Blackout in Iran by...?

July 31
100%
24h: $132K Total: $132K Ends: Jul 31, 2026

Elon Musk # tweets June 30 - July 7, 2026?▲ +2%

200-219
20%
220-239
20%
180-199
16%
240-259
14%
160-179
10%
24h: $131K Total: $364K Ends: Jul 07, 2026

Elon Musk # tweets June 29 - July 1, 2026?▼ -18%

65-89
44%
40-64
36%
90-114
16%
115-139
3%
<40
3%
24h: $125K Total: $154K Ends: Jul 01, 2026

Frequently Asked Questions

How accurate are political prediction markets?

Political prediction markets have historically outperformed polls and expert forecasts. Research shows they correctly predicted presidential election outcomes with greater accuracy than major polling averages. Because traders risk real money, they're incentivized to seek out the best information rather than express wishful thinking.

Can I trade on political prediction markets?

Yes. Platforms like Polymarket allow you to buy shares in political outcomes. If you believe an event is more likely than the current price suggests, you buy Yes shares. If it occurs, you receive $1 per share. Polymarket is available to users in most countries outside the US for political markets.

What political events can I bet on?

You can trade on presidential elections, congressional races, Supreme Court decisions, legislation passage, cabinet appointments, impeachment proceedings, and more. New political markets are added frequently as events develop.

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