Political Prediction Markets

Live odds on elections, presidential races, and political events. Track real-money predictions from thousands of traders.

Political prediction markets let traders put real money behind their forecasts for elections, legislation, and government actions. Unlike traditional polls, these markets aggregate the wisdom of thousands of participants with skin in the game — making them among the most accurate forecasting tools available. From presidential primaries to congressional races and Supreme Court decisions, political prediction markets provide real-time probability estimates that update 24/7 as news breaks.

66
Active Events
$5.9M
24h Volume

All Political Prediction Markets

US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?▲ +7%

September 20
100%
September 25
100%
September 30
96%
October 31
54%
November 30
38%
24h: $475K Total: $4.4M Ends: Oct 31, 2026

Elon Musk # tweets September 26 - September 28, 2026?▼ -23%

40-64
68%
65-89
32%
90-114
1%
24h: $405K Total: $544K Ends: Sep 28, 2026

Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
18%
Gavin Newsom
16%
Jon Ossoff
15%
Kamala Harris
6%
Josh Shapiro
6%
24h: $348K Total: $1285.9M Ends: Nov 08, 2028

Elon Musk # tweets September 22 - September 29, 2026?▼ -29%

180-199
52%
200-219
28%
160-179
12%
220-239
8%
240-259
2%
24h: $341K Total: $1.3M Ends: Sep 29, 2026

Next French Presidential Election▲ +1%

Marine Le Pen
39%
Édouard Philippe
20%
Jean-Luc Mélenchon
12%
David Lisnard
8%
François Hollande
6%
24h: $311K Total: $138.7M Ends: Apr 18, 2027

US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?▼ -13%

March 31
72%
December 31
57%
November 30
38%
October 31
32%
October 15
17%
24h: $300K Total: $32.9M Ends: Jan 01, 2027

Brazil Presidential Election

Flávio Bolsonaro
58%
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
42%
24h: $291K Total: $155.9M Ends: Oct 04, 2026

Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?

Gadi Eizenkot
52%
Benjamin Netanyahu
28%
Naftali Bennett
12%
Avigdor Lieberman
2%
Ofer Winter
1%
24h: $217K Total: $39.5M Ends: Oct 27, 2026

Elon Musk # tweets September 25 - October 2, 2026?▼ -6%

200-219
24%
180-199
22%
220-239
18%
240-259
11%
160-179
10%
24h: $213K Total: $751K Ends: Oct 02, 2026

Next Prime Minister of Sweden▲ +12%

Magdalena Andersson
74%
Ulf Kristersson
23%
Elisabeth Thand Ringqvist
3%
Ebba Busch
1%
24h: $177K Total: $9.0M Ends: Jul 01, 2027

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to norm
6%
24h: $135K Total: $1.2M Ends: Nov 01, 2026

Total Internet Blackout in Iran by...?

July 31
100%
24h: $132K Total: $132K Ends: Jul 31, 2026

Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms

Democrats Sweep
60%
R Senate, D House
30%
Republicans Sweep
8%
D Senate, R House
1%
24h: $130K Total: $14.5M Ends: Jan 05, 2027

Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 2nd Place

Flávio Bolsonaro
76%
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
23%
24h: $128K Total: $8.2M Ends: Oct 05, 2026

Putin out as President of Russia by...?

June 30, 2027
12%
December 31, 2026
4%
24h: $122K Total: $26.0M Ends: Jul 01, 2027

Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?

Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law i
6%
24h: $115K Total: $23.2M Ends: Jan 01, 2027

US Announces Diesel Export ban by...?

October 31
12%
September 30
3%
24h: $105K Total: $251K Ends: Nov 01, 2026

Trump out as President before 2027?

Trump out as President before 2027?
4%
24h: $103K Total: $12.0M Ends: Jan 01, 2027

Presidential Election Winner 2028

JD Vance
21%
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
13%
Jon Ossoff
12%
Marco Rubio
9%
Gavin Newsom
7%
24h: $98K Total: $709.8M Ends: Jan 21, 2029

Trump renames AI by...?▲ +18%

December 31
70%
September 30
36%
24h: $97K Total: $450K Ends: Jan 01, 2027

Will the US confirm that aliens exist by...?

December 31
4%
24h: $95K Total: $70.8M Ends: Jan 01, 2027

Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?

Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
3%
24h: $92K Total: $43.0M Ends: Jan 01, 2027

Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by...?▲ +36%

December 31, 2026
78%
October 31, 2026
62%
September 30, 2026
40%
24h: $80K Total: $168K Ends: Dec 31, 2026

Texas Governor Election Winner▼ -4%

Greg Abbott (R)
83%
Gina Hinojosa (D)
17%
24h: $74K Total: $311K Ends: Nov 03, 2026

Venezuela leader end of 2026?▲ +6%

Nicolás Maduro
68%
Delcy Rodríguez
30%
No Head of State
2%
24h: $74K Total: $97.8M Ends: Jan 01, 2027

Elon Musk # tweets September 29 - October 6, 2026?▲ +1%

180-199
22%
200-219
20%
160-179
16%
220-239
14%
240-259
10%
24h: $73K Total: $107K Ends: Oct 06, 2026

Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026▲ +6%

Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms
16%
Save the Children
7%
Hussam Abu Safiya
6%
Yulia Navalnaya
6%
Sara Al-Saqqa
5%
24h: $73K Total: $25.1M Ends: Apr 01, 2027

Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by...?▲ +5%

October 31
73%
October 15
46%
September 30
16%
24h: $64K Total: $1.7M Ends: Nov 01, 2026

Where will Trump and Putin meet next in 2026?

China
69%
No meeting by December 31
24%
United States
4%
Gulf country
2%
Russia
1%
24h: $50K Total: $1.6M Ends: Jan 01, 2027

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?▲ +2%

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to norm
22%
24h: $49K Total: $13.4M Ends: Jan 01, 2027

Frequently Asked Questions

How accurate are political prediction markets?

Political prediction markets have historically outperformed polls and expert forecasts. Research shows they correctly predicted presidential election outcomes with greater accuracy than major polling averages. Because traders risk real money, they're incentivized to seek out the best information rather than express wishful thinking.

Can I trade on political prediction markets?

Yes. Platforms like Polymarket allow you to buy shares in political outcomes. If you believe an event is more likely than the current price suggests, you buy Yes shares. If it occurs, you receive $1 per share. Polymarket is available to users in most countries outside the US for political markets.

What political events can I bet on?

You can trade on presidential elections, congressional races, Supreme Court decisions, legislation passage, cabinet appointments, impeachment proceedings, and more. New political markets are added frequently as events develop.

Learn More

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