Live odds on elections, presidential races, and political events. Track real-money predictions from thousands of traders.
Political prediction markets let traders put real money behind their forecasts for elections, legislation, and government actions. Unlike traditional polls, these markets aggregate the wisdom of thousands of participants with skin in the game — making them among the most accurate forecasting tools available. From presidential primaries to congressional races and Supreme Court decisions, political prediction markets provide real-time probability estimates that update 24/7 as news breaks.
Political prediction markets have historically outperformed polls and expert forecasts. Research shows they correctly predicted presidential election outcomes with greater accuracy than major polling averages. Because traders risk real money, they're incentivized to seek out the best information rather than express wishful thinking.
Yes. Platforms like Polymarket allow you to buy shares in political outcomes. If you believe an event is more likely than the current price suggests, you buy Yes shares. If it occurs, you receive $1 per share. Polymarket is available to users in most countries outside the US for political markets.
You can trade on presidential elections, congressional races, Supreme Court decisions, legislation passage, cabinet appointments, impeachment proceedings, and more. New political markets are added frequently as events develop.