Political Prediction Markets

Live odds on elections, presidential races, and political events. Track real-money predictions from thousands of traders.

Political prediction markets let traders put real money behind their forecasts for elections, legislation, and government actions. Unlike traditional polls, these markets aggregate the wisdom of thousands of participants with skin in the game — making them among the most accurate forecasting tools available. From presidential primaries to congressional races and Supreme Court decisions, political prediction markets provide real-time probability estimates that update 24/7 as news breaks.

105
Active Events
$59.7M
24h Volume

All Political Prediction Markets

Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028

Gavin Newsom
24%
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
8%
Jon Ossoff
6%
Kamala Harris
4%
Josh Shapiro
4%
24h: $8.6M Total: $942.8M Ends: Nov 07, 2028

Republican Presidential Nominee 2028▲ +2%

Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
49%
J.D. Vance
37%
Marco Rubio
20%
Tucker Carlson
5%
Ron DeSantis
3%
24h: $7.1M Total: $496.1M Ends: Nov 07, 2028

Presidential Election Winner 2028

JD Vance
17%
Gavin Newsom
17%
Marco Rubio
10%
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
6%
Jon Ossoff
3%
24h: $5.9M Total: $475.1M Ends: Nov 07, 2028

Netanyahu out by...?▼ -6%

December 31
42%
June 30
12%
April 30
3%
24h: $5.8M Total: $89.4M Ends: Dec 31, 2026

US x Iran ceasefire by...?

December 31
72%
June 30
58%
May 31
48%
April 30
30%
April 15
18%
24h: $3.3M Total: $64.1M

Elon Musk # tweets March 24 - March 31, 2026?

220-239
59%
240-259
30%
200-219
6%
260-279
6%
280-299
1%
24h: $2.3M Total: $9.8M Ends: Mar 31, 2026

Fed decision in April?▼ -3%

No change
97%
25+ bps increase
1%
25 bps decrease
1%
24h: $2.1M Total: $39.0M Ends: Apr 29, 2026

Elon Musk # tweets March 28 - March 30, 2026?

40-64
100%
24h: $2.0M Total: $3.6M Ends: Mar 30, 2026

Will Trump visit China by...?▼ -5%

June 30
82%
May 31
74%
April 30, 2026
2%
24h: $1.6M Total: $18.3M Ends: Apr 30, 2026

Hungary Parliamentary Election Winner▼ -2%

TISZA
66%
Fidesz-KDNP
34%
24h: $1.3M Total: $50.4M Ends: Apr 12, 2026

Next French Presidential Election▼ -1%

Édouard Philippe
26%
Jordan Bardella
24%
Jean-Luc Mélenchon
8%
Marine Le Pen
6%
Dominique de Villepin
5%
24h: $1.2M Total: $23.9M Ends: Apr 30, 2027

Elon Musk # tweets March 27 - April 3, 2026?

240-259
20%
260-279
18%
220-239
15%
280-299
14%
300-319
10%
24h: $1.0M Total: $12.4M Ends: Apr 03, 2026

2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Winner▲ +2%

Chong Won-oh
80%
Oh Se-hoon
12%
Park Ju-min
6%
24h: $911K Total: $9.1M Ends: Jun 03, 2026

Brazil Presidential Election▼ -1%

Flávio Bolsonaro
42%
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
42%
Renan Santos
6%
Fernando Haddad
6%
Tarcisio de Freitas
1%
24h: $783K Total: $33.8M Ends: Oct 04, 2026

Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?▲ +2%

Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
16%
24h: $657K Total: $22.9M Ends: Jun 30, 2026

How many different countries will Israel strike in 2026?▲ +6%

5
28%
4
24%
3
18%
6
12%
7
8%
24h: $639K Total: $5.5M Ends: Dec 31, 2026

Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?

June 30
44%
May 31
40%
April 30
32%
March 31
1%
24h: $636K Total: $9.3M Ends: Mar 31, 2026

Next Prime Minister of Hungary▲ +2%

Péter Magyar
64%
Viktor Orbán
36%
24h: $622K Total: $39.5M Ends: Apr 12, 2026

Next Prime Minister of Vietnam▲ +3%

Lê Minh Hưng
95%
Trần Lưu Quang
4%
24h: $605K Total: $15.7M Ends: Jan 25, 2026

Elon Musk # tweets March 31 - April 7, 2026?

240-259
12%
280-299
12%
260-279
12%
220-239
12%
300-319
10%
24h: $538K Total: $2.8M Ends: Apr 07, 2026

Next President of Vietnam

Tô Lâm
92%
Trần Thanh Mẫn
6%
Phan Văn Giang
1%
24h: $516K Total: $27.5M Ends: Jan 25, 2026

Fed Decision in July?

No change
78%
25 bps decrease
14%
25 bps increase
7%
50+ bps decrease
2%
50+ bps increase
1%
24h: $498K Total: $2.7M Ends: Jul 29, 2026

Virginia Republican Senate Primary Winner▼ -6%

Bert Mizusawa
33%
Chuck Smith
26%
David Williams
18%
Al Mina
14%
Kim Farington
7%
24h: $450K Total: $2.1M Ends: Jun 16, 2026

Who will Trump talk to in March?

Friedrich Merz
100%
Maria Corina Machado
100%
Emmanuel Macron
100%
Keir Starmer
100%
Ursula von der Leyen
100%
24h: $445K Total: $1.0M Ends: Mar 31, 2026

Will the US confirm that aliens exist by...?

December 31
16%
24h: $426K Total: $22.0M Ends: Dec 31, 2026

California Governor Election Winner▼ -8%

Eric Swalwell
62%
Tom Steyer
12%
Steve Hilton
8%
Matt Mahan
7%
Elaine Culotti
4%
24h: $423K Total: $7.7M Ends: Nov 03, 2026

Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?

Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30
6%
24h: $421K Total: $13.1M Ends: Apr 30, 2026

Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31?▲ +2%

Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31?
3%
24h: $420K Total: $5.2M Ends: Mar 31, 2026

Colombia Chamber of Representatives Election: 3rd Place

Partido Liberal Colombiano (PLC)
86%
Green Alliance (AV)
7%
Centro Democrático (CD)
5%
Partido de la U (La U)
1%
24h: $386K Total: $854K Ends: Mar 08, 2026

Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?

Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
10%
24h: $359K Total: $14.7M Ends: Dec 31, 2026

Frequently Asked Questions

How accurate are political prediction markets?

Political prediction markets have historically outperformed polls and expert forecasts. Research shows they correctly predicted presidential election outcomes with greater accuracy than major polling averages. Because traders risk real money, they're incentivized to seek out the best information rather than express wishful thinking.

Can I trade on political prediction markets?

Yes. Platforms like Polymarket allow you to buy shares in political outcomes. If you believe an event is more likely than the current price suggests, you buy Yes shares. If it occurs, you receive $1 per share. Polymarket is available to users in most countries outside the US for political markets.

What political events can I bet on?

You can trade on presidential elections, congressional races, Supreme Court decisions, legislation passage, cabinet appointments, impeachment proceedings, and more. New political markets are added frequently as events develop.

Learn More

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