Political Prediction Markets

Live odds on elections, presidential races, and political events. Track real-money predictions from thousands of traders.

Political prediction markets let traders put real money behind their forecasts for elections, legislation, and government actions. Unlike traditional polls, these markets aggregate the wisdom of thousands of participants with skin in the game — making them among the most accurate forecasting tools available. From presidential primaries to congressional races and Supreme Court decisions, political prediction markets provide real-time probability estimates that update 24/7 as news breaks.

100
Active Events
$37.3M
24h Volume

All Political Prediction Markets

What will Trump say during bilateral events with Xi Jinping?▼ -64%

Peng
100%
Ship / Chip
100%
24h: $5.3M Total: $7.1M Ends: May 15, 2026

Elon Musk # tweets May 8 - May 15, 2026?▲ +90%

140-159
100%
24h: $3.3M Total: $13.3M Ends: May 15, 2026

US x Iran permanent peace deal by...?▲ +4%

December 31
66%
June 30
32%
May 31
10%
24h: $2.5M Total: $115.9M Ends: Dec 31, 2026

Brazil Presidential Election▼ -4%

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
44%
Flávio Bolsonaro
29%
Renan Santos
9%
Romeu Zema
6%
Michelle Bolsonaro
3%
24h: $2.1M Total: $77.0M Ends: Oct 04, 2026

Fed Decision in June?

No change
98%
25 bps decrease
1%
25 bps increase
1%
24h: $1.6M Total: $28.8M Ends: Jun 17, 2026

Elon Musk # tweets May 12 - May 19, 2026?▼ -24%

180-199
23%
200-219
21%
160-179
16%
220-239
14%
240-259
10%
24h: $1.4M Total: $6.3M Ends: May 19, 2026

When will Trump leave China?▼ -1%

May 15
100%
24h: $1.4M Total: $1.5M Ends: May 20, 2026

Presidential Election Winner 2028

JD Vance
19%
Gavin Newsom
17%
Marco Rubio
14%
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
5%
Kamala Harris
5%
24h: $1.3M Total: $582.1M Ends: Nov 07, 2028

Republican Presidential Nominee 2028

Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
49%
J.D. Vance
36%
Marco Rubio
25%
Tucker Carlson
6%
Ron DeSantis
5%
24h: $1.2M Total: $617.9M Ends: Nov 07, 2028

Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028

Gavin Newsom
24%
Kamala Harris
9%
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
9%
Jon Ossoff
6%
Josh Shapiro
5%
24h: $1.1M Total: $1142.9M Ends: Nov 07, 2028

Starmer out by...?▼ -16%

December 31
72%
June 30
26%
May 31
10%
May 19
2%
24h: $963K Total: $25.7M Ends: Dec 31, 2025

Israel x Syria security agreement by...?▼ -4%

June 30
10%
24h: $836K Total: $2.1M Ends: Dec 31, 2025

Iran closes its airspace by...?▲ +8%

June 30
54%
May 31
38%
May 24
26%
May 21
16%
May 18
10%
24h: $813K Total: $14.4M Ends: May 31, 2026

Where will the next US-Iran diplomatic meeting happen?▼ -7%

No Meeting by June 30
42%
Pakistan
39%
Switzerland
3%
Other
3%
Oman
1%
24h: $793K Total: $6.3M Ends: Jun 30, 2026

Elon Musk # tweets May 15 - May 22, 2026?▼ -11%

160-179
14%
180-199
14%
200-219
13%
140-159
12%
220-239
9%
24h: $626K Total: $2.3M Ends: May 22, 2026

Next French Presidential Election

Jordan Bardella
24%
Édouard Philippe
20%
Jean-Luc Mélenchon
10%
Marine Le Pen
6%
François Hollande
5%
24h: $584K Total: $71.5M Ends: Apr 30, 2027

Will the US confirm that aliens exist by...?▼ -4%

December 31
14%
September 30
6%
June 30
2%
May 31
1%
24h: $553K Total: $38.8M Ends: Dec 31, 2026

Elon Musk # tweets May 14 - May 16, 2026?▲ +56%

65-89
68%
90-114
22%
40-64
8%
115-139
3%
24h: $542K Total: $837K Ends: May 16, 2026

Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026▲ +2%

Donald Trump
8%
Yulia Navalnaya
8%
Volodymyr Zelenskyy
6%
UNRWA
5%
Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani
4%
24h: $520K Total: $17.1M Ends: Oct 10, 2026

Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by May 31?

Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strai
1%
24h: $509K Total: $1.1M Ends: May 31, 2026

Peru Presidential Election Winner▼ -1%

Keiko Fujimori
62%
Roberto Sánchez Palomino
35%
Rafael López Aliaga
1%
24h: $502K Total: $51.1M Ends: Apr 12, 2026

Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by June 30, 2026?

Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory
1%
24h: $484K Total: $558K Ends: Jun 30, 2026

Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?

Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?
1%
24h: $424K Total: $19.9M Ends: May 31, 2026

2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Winner▲ +5%

Chong Won-oh
80%
Oh Se-hoon
20%
24h: $420K Total: $38.8M Ends: Jun 03, 2026

What Iranian demands will Trump agree to by May 31?▼ -2%

Oil Sanction Relief
12%
Unfreeze Iranian Assets
12%
Transit Fees in the Strait of Hormuz
3%
Enrichment of Uranium
1%
24h: $372K Total: $1.5M Ends: May 31, 2026

California Governor Election Winner▲ +2%

Xavier Becerra
51%
Tom Steyer
32%
Steve Hilton
10%
Katie Porter
3%
Chad Bianco
2%
24h: $369K Total: $22.0M Ends: Nov 03, 2026

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...?▼ -2%

December 31
26%
June 30
12%
May 31
4%
24h: $347K Total: $14.2M Ends: Dec 31, 2026

Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?

Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
7%
24h: $335K Total: $23.4M Ends: Dec 31, 2026

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by...?▼ -23%

June 30
56%
May 31
24%
24h: $325K Total: $36.4M Ends: Apr 30, 2026

Epstein suicide note released by...?▼ -2%

May 31
6%
24h: $294K Total: $14.6M Ends: May 31, 2026

Frequently Asked Questions

How accurate are political prediction markets?

Political prediction markets have historically outperformed polls and expert forecasts. Research shows they correctly predicted presidential election outcomes with greater accuracy than major polling averages. Because traders risk real money, they're incentivized to seek out the best information rather than express wishful thinking.

Can I trade on political prediction markets?

Yes. Platforms like Polymarket allow you to buy shares in political outcomes. If you believe an event is more likely than the current price suggests, you buy Yes shares. If it occurs, you receive $1 per share. Polymarket is available to users in most countries outside the US for political markets.

What political events can I bet on?

You can trade on presidential elections, congressional races, Supreme Court decisions, legislation passage, cabinet appointments, impeachment proceedings, and more. New political markets are added frequently as events develop.

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