Iran, China, Middle East — track real-money predictions on global conflicts and diplomacy.
Geopolitical prediction markets quantify the likelihood of conflicts, treaties, sanctions, and diplomatic shifts using real-money trading. These markets cover tensions in the Middle East, US-China relations, European politics, and global security events. Because traders risk their own capital, prices tend to aggregate diverse intelligence sources and expert opinions into a single, continuously updated probability.
Geopolitical prediction markets provide real-time probability estimates for conflicts, sanctions, and diplomatic events that are notoriously difficult to forecast. They aggregate information from traders worldwide — including those with regional expertise — into a single price signal that updates continuously.
While no forecasting method is perfect for geopolitical events, prediction markets tend to outperform individual expert forecasts by aggregating diverse viewpoints. They're particularly useful for tracking how probabilities shift in response to breaking news and diplomatic developments.
Available markets cover military conflicts, peace negotiations, sanctions, elections in foreign countries, territorial disputes, international agreements, and leadership changes. Markets are added as significant geopolitical situations develop.