Fed rates, tariffs, oil prices, trade war predictions. What the market thinks will happen.
Economic prediction markets track the financial events that move global markets — Federal Reserve rate decisions, inflation targets, trade policy, commodity prices, and recession probabilities. Traders stake real money on outcomes like whether the Fed will cut rates, oil will hit a price target, or tariffs will be imposed. These markets often price in economic shifts before traditional indicators.
Traders buy and sell shares in specific Fed rate outcomes — like whether rates will be cut by 25 or 50 basis points at the next meeting. The price of each contract reflects the market's collective probability estimate, updated in real-time as economic data, Fed speeches, and global events unfold.
Research suggests prediction markets often match or exceed the accuracy of professional economic forecasters, particularly for binary outcomes like rate decisions. They're especially valuable because they update instantly to new information, while economic forecasts may lag.
You can trade on Federal Reserve rate decisions, inflation data outcomes, GDP growth targets, unemployment figures, tariff implementations, recession timing, commodity prices, and major economic policy changes.