1st hottest leads at 80%. Moderate consensus — room for value on contrarian bets.
| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1st hottest | 80% | +25% | $27K |
| 2 | 3rd hottest BEST VALUE | 20% | +413% | $9K |
| 3 | 2nd hottest | 2% | +6567% | $5K |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for July 2026 versus the data points available for all other Julys on record. Note: If July 2026 is tied for fi...
This prediction market tracks whether 2026 July 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record? will occur, with $42K in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by available information and market participant behavior.
Traders lean toward 1st hottest at 80%, suggesting a probable but not certain outcome. This moderate confidence level often reflects genuine uncertainty — markets at this range tend to see the most price movement as new information emerges.
Trading activity is exceptionally high, with $26K traded in the last 24 hours alone (61% of total volume). This surge often indicates breaking news, a key deadline approaching, or a significant shift in market sentiment.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2026-07-31. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Jul 15, 2026 at 02:35 UTC, the leading outcome is 1st hottest at 80% probability, with $42K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
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