The market strongly favors 2nd hottest at 100%. High confidence — but lower potential returns.
| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2nd hottest | 100% | +0% | $15K |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2026 versus the data points available for all other Mays on record. Note: If May 2026 is tied for first...
This prediction market tracks whether 2026 May 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record? will occur, with $253K in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by available information and market participant behavior.
The market shows strong consensus: 2nd hottest is priced at 100%, indicating traders overwhelmingly expect this outcome. At this probability level, the potential return on a correct bet is relatively low, but contrarian positions carry significant upside if the consensus proves wrong.
Recent trading volume of $16K in 24 hours shows healthy market activity. Active markets tend to produce more accurate probability estimates, as continuous trading ensures prices quickly incorporate new information.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2026-06-10. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Jun 10, 2026 at 19:05 UTC, the leading outcome is 2nd hottest at 100% probability, with $253K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
The total trading volume for this market is $253K, with $16K traded in the last 24 hours. This represents real money at stake from prediction market traders on Polymarket.
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