The market strongly favors Tadej Pogačar at 91%. High confidence — but lower potential returns.
| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tadej Pogačar | 91% | +10% | $398 |
| 2 | Remco Evenepoel | 76% | +31% | $1K |
| 3 | Isaac del Toro | 54% | +85% | $590 |
| 4 | Warren Barguil | 49% | +105% | $629 |
| 5 | Quentin Pacher | 48% | +108% | $266 |
| 6 | Cees Bol | 48% | +110% | - |
| 7 | Julian Alaphilippe BEST VALUE | 48% | +111% | $813 |
| 8 | Kasper Asgreen | 48% | +111% | $806 |
| 9 | John Degenkolb | 48% | +111% | $806 |
| 10 | Luke Durbridge | 48% | +111% | $806 |
| 11 | Jasper Philipsen | 48% | +111% | $806 |
| 12 | Nils Politt | 48% | +111% | $806 |
| 13 | Clément Russo | 48% | +111% | $806 |
| 14 | Mauro Schmid | 48% | +111% | $806 |
| 15 | Jake Stewart | 48% | +111% | $806 |
| 16 | Baptiste Veistroffer | 48% | +111% | $709 |
| 17 | Florian Vermeersch | 48% | +111% | $806 |
| 18 | Emiel Verstrynge | 48% | +111% | $709 |
| 19 | Nicolas Vinokurov | 48% | +111% | $806 |
| 20 | Søren Wærenskjold | 48% | +111% | $806 |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed cyclist finishes in the top 3 of the 2026 Tour De France scheduled for July 4, 2026 through July 26, 2026. If at any point it becomes impossible for a...
This prediction market tracks whether Tour De France 2026: Top 3 will occur, with $81K in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by team performance data, historical matchups, and real-time injury reports.
The market shows strong consensus: Tadej Pogačar is priced at 91%, indicating traders overwhelmingly expect this outcome. At this probability level, the potential return on a correct bet is relatively low, but contrarian positions carry significant upside if the consensus proves wrong.
Trading activity is exceptionally high, with $50K traded in the last 24 hours alone (62% of total volume). This surge often indicates breaking news, a key deadline approaching, or a significant shift in market sentiment.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2026-08-09. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Jul 24, 2026 at 18:35 UTC, the leading outcome is Tadej Pogačar at 91% probability, with $81K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
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