The market strongly favors $235 at 98%. High confidence — but lower potential returns.
| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | $235 | 98% | +2% | $23 |
| 2 | $240 | 98% | +2% | $81 |
| 3 | $245 | 98% | +2% | $36 |
| 4 | $250 | 97% | +3% | $243 |
| 5 | $255 BEST VALUE | 59% | +68% | $15K |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Close price for Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) on July 15, 2026 is higher than the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." If the two specified pr...
This prediction market tracks whether Amazon (AMZN) closes above ___ on July 15? will occur, with $15K in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by available information and market participant behavior.
The market shows strong consensus: $235 is priced at 98%, indicating traders overwhelmingly expect this outcome. At this probability level, the potential return on a correct bet is relatively low, but contrarian positions carry significant upside if the consensus proves wrong.
Trading activity is exceptionally high, with $15K traded in the last 24 hours alone (100% of total volume). This surge often indicates breaking news, a key deadline approaching, or a significant shift in market sentiment.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2026-07-15. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Jul 15, 2026 at 16:55 UTC, the leading outcome is $235 at 98% probability, with $15K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
What Are Prediction Markets? · How to Trade · Odds Calculator · Compare Platforms