The market strongly favors December 31, 11:59 PM at 96%. High confidence — but lower potential returns.
| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | December 31, 11:59 PM | 96% | +5% | $1K |
| 2 | November 30, 11:59 PM | 95% | +5% | $4K |
| 3 | November 15, 11:59 PM | 92% | +9% | $2K |
| 4 | November 13, 11:59 PM | 88% | +13% | $3K |
| 5 | November 10, 11:59 PM | 87% | +14% | $3K |
| 6 | November 6, 11:59 PM | 84% | +19% | $4K |
| 7 | November 5, 11:59 PM | 83% | +20% | $3K |
| 8 | November 4, 11:59 PM | 82% | +22% | $4K |
| 9 | November 4, 3:59 AM | 76% | +31% | $2K |
| 10 | November 4, 12:59 AM | 54% | +87% | $496 |
| 11 | November 3, 11:59 PM | 42% | +135% | $2K |
| 12 | November 3, 10:59 PM BEST VALUE | 18% | +456% | $236 |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Associated Press has, by the specified date and time (ET), called control of the United States House of Representatives for the Congress that will convene foll...
This prediction market tracks whether AP calls the House by...? will occur, with $30K in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by polling data, political developments, and historical voting patterns.
The market shows strong consensus: December 31, 11:59 PM is priced at 96%, indicating traders overwhelmingly expect this outcome. At this probability level, the potential return on a correct bet is relatively low, but contrarian positions carry significant upside if the consensus proves wrong.
Trading activity is exceptionally high, with $13K traded in the last 24 hours alone (43% of total volume). This surge often indicates breaking news, a key deadline approaching, or a significant shift in market sentiment.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2027-01-04. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Oct 27, 2026 at 07:45 UTC, the leading outcome is December 31, 11:59 PM at 96% probability, with $30K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
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