The market strongly favors Japan Open Tennis Championships: Carlos Alcaraz vs Denis Shapovalov at 86%. High confidence — but lower potential returns.
| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Japan Open Tennis Championships: Carlos Alcaraz vs Denis Shapovalov | 86% | +16% | $34K |
| 2 | Japan Open Tennis Championships: Carlos Alcaraz vs Denis Shapovalov Set 2 Winner | 80% | +25% | - |
| 3 | Japan Open Tennis Championships: Carlos Alcaraz vs Denis Shapovalov Set 1 Winner | 80% | +26% | - |
| 4 | Japan Open Tennis Championships: Carlos Alcaraz vs Denis Shapovalov Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 68% | +46% | - |
| 5 | Japan Open Tennis Championships: Carlos Alcaraz vs Denis Shapovalov Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 66% | +52% | - |
| 6 | Completed Match | 60% | +67% | - |
| 7 | Japan Open Tennis Championships: Carlos Alcaraz vs Denis Shapovalov Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 50% | +102% | - |
| 8 | Japan Open Tennis Championships: Carlos Alcaraz vs Denis Shapovalov Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 50% | +102% | - |
| 9 | Japan Open Tennis Championships: Carlos Alcaraz vs Denis Shapovalov Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 50% | +102% | - |
| 10 | Japan Open Tennis Championships: Carlos Alcaraz vs Denis Shapovalov Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 46% | +117% | - |
| 11 | Japan Open Tennis Championships: Carlos Alcaraz vs Denis Shapovalov Game Spread +/-5.5 | 42% | +135% | $5K |
| 12 | Japan Open Tennis Championships: Carlos Alcaraz vs Denis Shapovalov Match O/U 21.5 | 42% | +138% | $56 |
| 13 | Japan Open Tennis Championships: Carlos Alcaraz vs Denis Shapovalov Match O/U 22.5 | 34% | +194% | - |
| 14 | Japan Open Tennis Championships: Carlos Alcaraz vs Denis Shapovalov Match O/U 23.5 | 32% | +208% | - |
| 15 | Japan Open Tennis Championships: Carlos Alcaraz vs Denis Shapovalov Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 27% | +270% | - |
| 16 | Japan Open Tennis Championships: Carlos Alcaraz vs Denis Shapovalov Set 1 O/U 10.5 BEST VALUE | 21% | +376% | - |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
This market refers to the tennis match between Carlos Alcaraz and Denis Shapovalov in the Japan Open Tennis Championships, originally scheduled for October 4, 2026 at 12:00AM ET. This market will res...
This prediction market tracks whether Japan Open Tennis Championships: Carlos Alcaraz vs Denis Shapovalov will occur, with $38K in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by team performance data, historical matchups, and real-time injury reports.
The market shows strong consensus: Japan Open Tennis Championships: Carlos Alcaraz vs Denis Shapovalov is priced at 86%, indicating traders overwhelmingly expect this outcome. At this probability level, the potential return on a correct bet is relatively low, but contrarian positions carry significant upside if the consensus proves wrong.
Trading activity is exceptionally high, with $38K traded in the last 24 hours alone (100% of total volume). This surge often indicates breaking news, a key deadline approaching, or a significant shift in market sentiment.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2026-10-11. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Oct 03, 2026 at 22:05 UTC, the leading outcome is Japan Open Tennis Championships: Carlos Alcaraz vs Denis Shapovalov at 86% probability, with $38K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
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