The market strongly favors US Open ATP: Matteo Arnaldi vs James Duckworth Set 1 Winner at 91%. High confidence — but lower potential returns.
| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | US Open ATP: Matteo Arnaldi vs James Duckworth Set 1 Winner | 91% | +10% | $191 |
| 2 | US Open ATP: Matteo Arnaldi vs James Duckworth Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 90% | +11% | - |
| 3 | US Open ATP: Matteo Arnaldi vs James Duckworth Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 90% | +11% | - |
| 4 | US Open ATP: Matteo Arnaldi vs James Duckworth Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 90% | +11% | - |
| 5 | US Open ATP: Matteo Arnaldi vs James Duckworth | 78% | +27% | $66K |
| 6 | US Open ATP: Matteo Arnaldi vs James Duckworth Set 2 Winner | 62% | +63% | $62 |
| 7 | US Open ATP: Matteo Arnaldi vs James Duckworth Set 3 Winner | 60% | +67% | - |
| 8 | US Open ATP: Matteo Arnaldi vs James Duckworth Match O/U 40.5 | 51% | +96% | $86 |
| 9 | Completed Match BEST VALUE | 50% | +100% | - |
| 10 | US Open ATP: Matteo Arnaldi vs James Duckworth Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 50% | +100% | - |
| 11 | US Open ATP: Matteo Arnaldi vs James Duckworth Total Sets: O/U 3.5 | 50% | +100% | - |
| 12 | US Open ATP: Matteo Arnaldi vs James Duckworth Match O/U 36.5 | 50% | +100% | - |
| 13 | US Open ATP: Matteo Arnaldi vs James Duckworth Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 50% | +100% | $2K |
| 14 | US Open ATP: Matteo Arnaldi vs James Duckworth Game Spread +/-0.5 | 50% | +100% | - |
| 15 | US Open ATP: Matteo Arnaldi vs James Duckworth Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 50% | +100% | - |
| 16 | US Open ATP: Matteo Arnaldi vs James Duckworth Total Sets: O/U 4.5 | 50% | +100% | - |
| 17 | US Open ATP: Matteo Arnaldi vs James Duckworth Set 4 Winner | 50% | +100% | - |
| 18 | US Open ATP: Matteo Arnaldi vs James Duckworth Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 50% | +100% | - |
| 19 | US Open ATP: Matteo Arnaldi vs James Duckworth Set 3 O/U 8.5 | 50% | +100% | - |
| 20 | US Open ATP: Matteo Arnaldi vs James Duckworth Set 3 O/U 9.5 | 50% | +100% | - |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
This market refers to the tennis match between Matteo Arnaldi and James Duckworth in the US Open ATP, originally scheduled for August 30, 2026 at 11:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Matteo Arnal...
This prediction market tracks whether US Open ATP: Matteo Arnaldi vs James Duckworth will occur, with $69K in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by team performance data, historical matchups, and real-time injury reports.
The market shows strong consensus: US Open ATP: Matteo Arnaldi vs James Duckworth Set 1 Winner is priced at 91%, indicating traders overwhelmingly expect this outcome. At this probability level, the potential return on a correct bet is relatively low, but contrarian positions carry significant upside if the consensus proves wrong.
Trading activity is exceptionally high, with $61K traded in the last 24 hours alone (88% of total volume). This surge often indicates breaking news, a key deadline approaching, or a significant shift in market sentiment.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2026-09-06. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Aug 31, 2026 at 18:05 UTC, the leading outcome is US Open ATP: Matteo Arnaldi vs James Duckworth Set 1 Winner at 91% probability, with $69K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
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