Shanghai: Luca Castelnuovo vs Ilya Ivashka Set 1 O/U 8.5 leads at 76%. Moderate consensus — room for value on contrarian bets.
| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Shanghai: Luca Castelnuovo vs Ilya Ivashka Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 76% | +32% | - |
| 2 | Shanghai: Luca Castelnuovo vs Ilya Ivashka Set 1 Winner | 62% | +61% | - |
| 3 | Shanghai: Luca Castelnuovo vs Ilya Ivashka Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 55% | +82% | - |
| 4 | Shanghai: Luca Castelnuovo vs Ilya Ivashka Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 52% | +94% | - |
| 5 | Completed Match | 50% | +100% | - |
| 6 | Shanghai: Luca Castelnuovo vs Ilya Ivashka Set 2 Winner | 50% | +100% | - |
| 7 | Shanghai: Luca Castelnuovo vs Ilya Ivashka Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 50% | +100% | - |
| 8 | Shanghai: Luca Castelnuovo vs Ilya Ivashka Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 50% | +100% | - |
| 9 | Shanghai: Luca Castelnuovo vs Ilya Ivashka Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 50% | +100% | - |
| 10 | Shanghai: Luca Castelnuovo vs Ilya Ivashka Match O/U 21.5 | 50% | +100% | - |
| 11 | Shanghai: Luca Castelnuovo vs Ilya Ivashka Match O/U 23.5 | 50% | +100% | - |
| 12 | Shanghai: Luca Castelnuovo vs Ilya Ivashka Game Spread +/-4.5 | 50% | +100% | $1K |
| 13 | Shanghai: Luca Castelnuovo vs Ilya Ivashka Match O/U 22.5 | 44% | +130% | - |
| 14 | Shanghai: Luca Castelnuovo vs Ilya Ivashka Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 34% | +194% | - |
| 15 | Shanghai: Luca Castelnuovo vs Ilya Ivashka Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 32% | +217% | $15 |
| 16 | Shanghai: Luca Castelnuovo vs Ilya Ivashka Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 30% | +228% | - |
| 17 | Shanghai: Luca Castelnuovo vs Ilya Ivashka BEST VALUE | 22% | +365% | $14K |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
This market refers to the tennis match between Luca Castelnuovo and Ilya Ivashka in the Shanghai, originally scheduled for September 12, 2026 at 5:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Luca Castelnuo...
This prediction market tracks whether Shanghai: Luca Castelnuovo vs Ilya Ivashka will occur, with $15K in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by team performance data, historical matchups, and real-time injury reports.
Traders lean toward Shanghai: Luca Castelnuovo vs Ilya Ivashka Set 1 O/U 8.5 at 76%, suggesting a probable but not certain outcome. This moderate confidence level often reflects genuine uncertainty — markets at this range tend to see the most price movement as new information emerges.
Trading activity is exceptionally high, with $15K traded in the last 24 hours alone (100% of total volume). This surge often indicates breaking news, a key deadline approaching, or a significant shift in market sentiment.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2026-09-19. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Sep 12, 2026 at 09:05 UTC, the leading outcome is Shanghai: Luca Castelnuovo vs Ilya Ivashka Set 1 O/U 8.5 at 76% probability, with $15K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
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