The market strongly favors Shanghai Rolex Masters: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Frances Tiafoe Set 1 O/U 8.5 at 85%. High confidence — but lower potential returns.
| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Shanghai Rolex Masters: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Frances Tiafoe Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 85% | +18% | - |
| 2 | Shanghai Rolex Masters: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Frances Tiafoe Match O/U 21.5 | 63% | +59% | $443 |
| 3 | Completed Match | 52% | +90% | $120 |
| 4 | Shanghai Rolex Masters: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Frances Tiafoe Match O/U 22.5 | 52% | +90% | $653 |
| 5 | Shanghai Rolex Masters: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Frances Tiafoe Game Spread +/-0.5 | 50% | +98% | $160 |
| 6 | Shanghai Rolex Masters: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Frances Tiafoe Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 50% | +100% | - |
| 7 | Shanghai Rolex Masters: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Frances Tiafoe Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 50% | +100% | - |
| 8 | Shanghai Rolex Masters: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Frances Tiafoe Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 50% | +100% | - |
| 9 | Shanghai Rolex Masters: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Frances Tiafoe Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 50% | +100% | - |
| 10 | Shanghai Rolex Masters: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Frances Tiafoe | 50% | +102% | $38K |
| 11 | Shanghai Rolex Masters: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Frances Tiafoe Set 1 Winner | 50% | +102% | $2 |
| 12 | Shanghai Rolex Masters: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Frances Tiafoe Set 2 Winner | 50% | +102% | - |
| 13 | Shanghai Rolex Masters: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Frances Tiafoe Match O/U 23.5 | 44% | +125% | $2 |
| 14 | Shanghai Rolex Masters: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Frances Tiafoe Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 39% | +156% | $36 |
| 15 | Shanghai Rolex Masters: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Frances Tiafoe Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 34% | +190% | - |
| 16 | Shanghai Rolex Masters: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Frances Tiafoe Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 31% | +223% | $468 |
| 17 | Shanghai Rolex Masters: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Frances Tiafoe Set Handicap +/-1.5 BEST VALUE | 30% | +228% | $1K |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
This market refers to the tennis match between Alejandro Davidovich Fokina and Frances Tiafoe in the Shanghai Rolex Masters, originally scheduled for October 11, 2026 at 10:00PM ET. This market will...
This prediction market tracks whether Shanghai Rolex Masters: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Frances Tiafoe will occur, with $41K in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by team performance data, historical matchups, and real-time injury reports.
The market shows strong consensus: Shanghai Rolex Masters: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Frances Tiafoe Set 1 O/U 8.5 is priced at 85%, indicating traders overwhelmingly expect this outcome. At this probability level, the potential return on a correct bet is relatively low, but contrarian positions carry significant upside if the consensus proves wrong.
Trading activity is exceptionally high, with $39K traded in the last 24 hours alone (96% of total volume). This surge often indicates breaking news, a key deadline approaching, or a significant shift in market sentiment.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2026-10-19. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Oct 11, 2026 at 11:45 UTC, the leading outcome is Shanghai Rolex Masters: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Frances Tiafoe Set 1 O/U 8.5 at 85% probability, with $41K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
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