China Open, Qualification: Tomas Machac vs Arthur Gea Set 1 O/U 8.5 leads at 78%. Moderate consensus — room for value on contrarian bets.
| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | China Open, Qualification: Tomas Machac vs Arthur Gea Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 78% | +27% | - |
| 2 | China Open, Qualification: Tomas Machac vs Arthur Gea Match O/U 21.5 | 57% | +74% | - |
| 3 | Completed Match | 56% | +79% | $1K |
| 4 | China Open, Qualification: Tomas Machac vs Arthur Gea Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 55% | +83% | - |
| 5 | China Open, Qualification: Tomas Machac vs Arthur Gea Match O/U 22.5 | 52% | +94% | $25 |
| 6 | China Open, Qualification: Tomas Machac vs Arthur Gea Game Spread +/-1.5 | 52% | +94% | - |
| 7 | China Open, Qualification: Tomas Machac vs Arthur Gea Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 50% | +102% | - |
| 8 | China Open, Qualification: Tomas Machac vs Arthur Gea Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 50% | +102% | - |
| 9 | China Open, Qualification: Tomas Machac vs Arthur Gea Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 50% | +102% | - |
| 10 | China Open, Qualification: Tomas Machac vs Arthur Gea Match O/U 23.5 | 46% | +120% | $4 |
| 11 | China Open, Qualification: Tomas Machac vs Arthur Gea Set 2 Winner | 45% | +122% | - |
| 12 | China Open, Qualification: Tomas Machac vs Arthur Gea Set 1 Winner | 44% | +127% | - |
| 13 | China Open, Qualification: Tomas Machac vs Arthur Gea | 44% | +130% | $16K |
| 14 | China Open, Qualification: Tomas Machac vs Arthur Gea Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 42% | +141% | $2 |
| 15 | China Open, Qualification: Tomas Machac vs Arthur Gea Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 34% | +190% | - |
| 16 | China Open, Qualification: Tomas Machac vs Arthur Gea Set 1 O/U 10.5 BEST VALUE | 30% | +233% | $66 |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
This market refers to the tennis match between Tomas Machac and Arthur Gea in the China Open, Qualification, originally scheduled for September 28, 2026 at 11:00PM ET. This market will resolve to 'To...
This prediction market tracks whether China Open, Qualification: Tomas Machac vs Arthur Gea will occur, with $17K in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by team performance data, historical matchups, and real-time injury reports.
Traders lean toward China Open, Qualification: Tomas Machac vs Arthur Gea Set 1 O/U 8.5 at 78%, suggesting a probable but not certain outcome. This moderate confidence level often reflects genuine uncertainty — markets at this range tend to see the most price movement as new information emerges.
Trading activity is exceptionally high, with $17K traded in the last 24 hours alone (100% of total volume). This surge often indicates breaking news, a key deadline approaching, or a significant shift in market sentiment.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2026-10-06. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Sep 28, 2026 at 21:55 UTC, the leading outcome is China Open, Qualification: Tomas Machac vs Arthur Gea Set 1 O/U 8.5 at 78% probability, with $17K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
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