The market strongly favors US Open ATP: Daniil Medvedev vs Hugo Gaston at 92%. High confidence — but lower potential returns.
| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | US Open ATP: Daniil Medvedev vs Hugo Gaston | 92% | +8% | $99K |
| 2 | US Open ATP: Daniil Medvedev vs Hugo Gaston Set 1 Winner | 91% | +10% | $33 |
| 3 | US Open ATP: Daniil Medvedev vs Hugo Gaston Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 90% | +11% | - |
| 4 | US Open ATP: Daniil Medvedev vs Hugo Gaston Set 2 Winner | 78% | +29% | - |
| 5 | US Open ATP: Daniil Medvedev vs Hugo Gaston Set 3 Winner | 77% | +30% | - |
| 6 | US Open ATP: Daniil Medvedev vs Hugo Gaston Match O/U 36.5 | 66% | +52% | $20 |
| 7 | US Open ATP: Daniil Medvedev vs Hugo Gaston Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 51% | +98% | $182 |
| 8 | Completed Match BEST VALUE | 50% | +100% | $218 |
| 9 | US Open ATP: Daniil Medvedev vs Hugo Gaston Total Sets: O/U 3.5 | 50% | +100% | $151 |
| 10 | US Open ATP: Daniil Medvedev vs Hugo Gaston Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 50% | +100% | - |
| 11 | US Open ATP: Daniil Medvedev vs Hugo Gaston Game Spread +/-8.5 | 50% | +100% | $5 |
| 12 | US Open ATP: Daniil Medvedev vs Hugo Gaston Total Sets: O/U 4.5 | 50% | +100% | - |
| 13 | US Open ATP: Daniil Medvedev vs Hugo Gaston Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 50% | +100% | - |
| 14 | US Open ATP: Daniil Medvedev vs Hugo Gaston Match O/U 38.5 | 50% | +100% | - |
| 15 | US Open ATP: Daniil Medvedev vs Hugo Gaston Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 50% | +100% | - |
| 16 | US Open ATP: Daniil Medvedev vs Hugo Gaston Set 4 Winner | 50% | +100% | - |
| 17 | US Open ATP: Daniil Medvedev vs Hugo Gaston Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 50% | +100% | - |
| 18 | US Open ATP: Daniil Medvedev vs Hugo Gaston Match O/U 40.5 | 50% | +100% | - |
| 19 | US Open ATP: Daniil Medvedev vs Hugo Gaston Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 50% | +100% | - |
| 20 | US Open ATP: Daniil Medvedev vs Hugo Gaston Set 3 O/U 8.5 | 50% | +100% | - |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
This market refers to the tennis match between Daniil Medvedev and Hugo Gaston in the US Open ATP, originally scheduled for August 30, 2026 at 11:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Daniil Medvedev...
This prediction market tracks whether US Open ATP: Daniil Medvedev vs Hugo Gaston will occur, with $100K in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by team performance data, historical matchups, and real-time injury reports.
The market shows strong consensus: US Open ATP: Daniil Medvedev vs Hugo Gaston is priced at 92%, indicating traders overwhelmingly expect this outcome. At this probability level, the potential return on a correct bet is relatively low, but contrarian positions carry significant upside if the consensus proves wrong.
Trading activity is exceptionally high, with $99K traded in the last 24 hours alone (99% of total volume). This surge often indicates breaking news, a key deadline approaching, or a significant shift in market sentiment.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2026-09-06. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Aug 30, 2026 at 18:45 UTC, the leading outcome is US Open ATP: Daniil Medvedev vs Hugo Gaston at 92% probability, with $100K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
The total trading volume for this market is $100K, with $99K traded in the last 24 hours. This represents real money at stake from prediction market traders on Polymarket.
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