US Open ATP: Ben Shelton vs Carlos Alcaraz Set 1 O/U 8.5 leads at 81%. Moderate consensus — room for value on contrarian bets.
| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | US Open ATP: Ben Shelton vs Carlos Alcaraz Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 81% | +23% | - |
| 2 | US Open ATP: Ben Shelton vs Carlos Alcaraz Set 3 Winner | 64% | +57% | - |
| 3 | US Open ATP: Ben Shelton vs Carlos Alcaraz Total Sets: O/U 3.5 | 62% | +60% | $15 |
| 4 | US Open ATP: Ben Shelton vs Carlos Alcaraz Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 60% | +67% | - |
| 5 | US Open ATP: Ben Shelton vs Carlos Alcaraz Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 59% | +69% | $176 |
| 6 | US Open ATP: Ben Shelton vs Carlos Alcaraz Match O/U 38.5 | 52% | +94% | $16 |
| 7 | US Open ATP: Ben Shelton vs Carlos Alcaraz Set 4 O/U 10.5 | 50% | +98% | - |
| 8 | Completed Match | 50% | +100% | - |
| 9 | US Open ATP: Ben Shelton vs Carlos Alcaraz Set 4 Winner | 50% | +100% | - |
| 10 | US Open ATP: Ben Shelton vs Carlos Alcaraz Set 4 O/U 8.5 | 50% | +100% | - |
| 11 | US Open ATP: Ben Shelton vs Carlos Alcaraz Set 4 O/U 9.5 | 50% | +100% | - |
| 12 | US Open ATP: Ben Shelton vs Carlos Alcaraz Match O/U 36.5 | 50% | +100% | - |
| 13 | US Open ATP: Ben Shelton vs Carlos Alcaraz Game Spread +/-4.5 | 50% | +100% | - |
| 14 | US Open ATP: Ben Shelton vs Carlos Alcaraz Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 50% | +102% | - |
| 15 | US Open ATP: Ben Shelton vs Carlos Alcaraz Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 50% | +102% | - |
| 16 | US Open ATP: Ben Shelton vs Carlos Alcaraz Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 50% | +102% | - |
| 17 | US Open ATP: Ben Shelton vs Carlos Alcaraz Set 3 O/U 8.5 | 50% | +102% | - |
| 18 | US Open ATP: Ben Shelton vs Carlos Alcaraz Set 3 O/U 9.5 | 50% | +102% | - |
| 19 | US Open ATP: Ben Shelton vs Carlos Alcaraz Set 3 O/U 10.5 | 50% | +102% | - |
| 20 | US Open ATP: Ben Shelton vs Carlos Alcaraz Match O/U 40.5 BEST VALUE | 46% | +120% | - |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
This market refers to the tennis match between Ben Shelton and Carlos Alcaraz in the US Open ATP, originally scheduled for September 8, 2026 at 11:30AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Ben Shelton' i...
This prediction market tracks whether US Open ATP: Ben Shelton vs Carlos Alcaraz will occur, with $40K in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by team performance data, historical matchups, and real-time injury reports.
Traders lean toward US Open ATP: Ben Shelton vs Carlos Alcaraz Set 1 O/U 8.5 at 81%, suggesting a probable but not certain outcome. This moderate confidence level often reflects genuine uncertainty — markets at this range tend to see the most price movement as new information emerges.
Trading activity is exceptionally high, with $40K traded in the last 24 hours alone (100% of total volume). This surge often indicates breaking news, a key deadline approaching, or a significant shift in market sentiment.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2026-09-15. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Sep 07, 2026 at 10:15 UTC, the leading outcome is US Open ATP: Ben Shelton vs Carlos Alcaraz Set 1 O/U 8.5 at 81% probability, with $40K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
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