The market strongly favors Guangzhou: Elias Ymer vs Luca Castelnuovo Set 1 O/U 10.5 at 100%. High confidence — but lower potential returns.
| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Guangzhou: Elias Ymer vs Luca Castelnuovo Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 100% | +0% | $2 |
| 2 | Guangzhou: Elias Ymer vs Luca Castelnuovo Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 100% | +1% | - |
| 3 | Guangzhou: Elias Ymer vs Luca Castelnuovo Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 100% | +1% | - |
| 4 | Completed Match | 50% | +100% | - |
| 5 | Guangzhou: Elias Ymer vs Luca Castelnuovo Set 1 Winner | 50% | +100% | - |
| 6 | Guangzhou: Elias Ymer vs Luca Castelnuovo Set 2 Winner | 50% | +100% | - |
| 7 | Guangzhou: Elias Ymer vs Luca Castelnuovo Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 50% | +100% | $500 |
| 8 | Guangzhou: Elias Ymer vs Luca Castelnuovo Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 50% | +100% | - |
| 9 | Guangzhou: Elias Ymer vs Luca Castelnuovo Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 50% | +100% | - |
| 10 | Guangzhou: Elias Ymer vs Luca Castelnuovo Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 50% | +100% | - |
| 11 | Guangzhou: Elias Ymer vs Luca Castelnuovo Match O/U 21.5 | 50% | +100% | - |
| 12 | Guangzhou: Elias Ymer vs Luca Castelnuovo Match O/U 22.5 | 50% | +100% | $38 |
| 13 | Guangzhou: Elias Ymer vs Luca Castelnuovo Match O/U 23.5 | 50% | +100% | - |
| 14 | Guangzhou: Elias Ymer vs Luca Castelnuovo Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 50% | +100% | $5 |
| 15 | Guangzhou: Elias Ymer vs Luca Castelnuovo Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 50% | +100% | - |
| 16 | Guangzhou: Elias Ymer vs Luca Castelnuovo Game Spread +/-3.5 | 50% | +100% | - |
| 17 | Guangzhou: Elias Ymer vs Luca Castelnuovo BEST VALUE | 46% | +120% | $43K |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
This market refers to the tennis match between Elias Ymer and Luca Castelnuovo in the Guangzhou, originally scheduled for September 16, 2026 at 4:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Elias Ymer' if...
This prediction market tracks whether Guangzhou: Elias Ymer vs Luca Castelnuovo will occur, with $43K in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by team performance data, historical matchups, and real-time injury reports.
The market shows strong consensus: Guangzhou: Elias Ymer vs Luca Castelnuovo Set 1 O/U 10.5 is priced at 100%, indicating traders overwhelmingly expect this outcome. At this probability level, the potential return on a correct bet is relatively low, but contrarian positions carry significant upside if the consensus proves wrong.
Trading activity is exceptionally high, with $43K traded in the last 24 hours alone (100% of total volume). This surge often indicates breaking news, a key deadline approaching, or a significant shift in market sentiment.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2026-09-23. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Sep 16, 2026 at 08:35 UTC, the leading outcome is Guangzhou: Elias Ymer vs Luca Castelnuovo Set 1 O/U 10.5 at 100% probability, with $43K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
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