This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Based's token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Based (https://x.com/BasedOneX) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
| # | Outcome | Probability | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | $50M | 99% | $177K |
| 2 | $75M | 97% | $135K |
| 3 | $100M | 78% | $401K |
| 4 | $200M | 8% | $653K |
| 5 | $300M | 1% | $372K |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
As of Mar 30, 2026 at 20:16 UTC, the leading outcome is $50M at 99% probability, with $4.6M in total trading volume on Polymarket.
The total trading volume for this market is $4.6M, with $631K traded in the last 24 hours. This represents real money at stake from prediction market traders on Polymarket.
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