July 20 leads at 65%. Moderate consensus — room for value on contrarian bets.
| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | July 20 | 65% | +54% | $2K |
| 2 | July 21 BEST VALUE | 62% | +61% | $2K |
| 3 | July 19 | 3% | +3290% | $7K |
| 4 | July 18 | 1% | +13233% | $5K |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
This market will resolve to "Yes" if "Chicago" has a PM2.5 Air Quality Index of below 100 between July 17, 2026 and the specified date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This market's reso...
This prediction market tracks whether Chicago Air Quality Index below 100 by...? will occur, with $17K in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by available information and market participant behavior.
Traders lean toward July 20 at 65%, suggesting a probable but not certain outcome. This moderate confidence level often reflects genuine uncertainty — markets at this range tend to see the most price movement as new information emerges.
Trading activity is exceptionally high, with $15K traded in the last 24 hours alone (91% of total volume). This surge often indicates breaking news, a key deadline approaching, or a significant shift in market sentiment.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2026-07-21. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Jul 19, 2026 at 23:45 UTC, the leading outcome is July 20 at 65% probability, with $17K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
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