The market strongly favors June 30 at 100%. High confidence — but lower potential returns.
High Volume — $3.3M traded| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | June 30 | 100% | - | $605K |
| 2 | June 15 | 100% | - | $618K |
| 3 | July 31 | 100% | - | $228K |
| 4 | June 10 | 100% | - | $572K |
| 5 | June 22 | 100% | - | $47K |
| 6 | June 12 | 100% | - | $115K |
| 7 | June 9 | 100% | - | $792K |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
A data leak on March 26, 2026, exposed Anthropic's unreleased "Claude Mythos" model, described as their most capable yet with significant advances in coding, reasoning, and cybersecurity, which the co...
This prediction market tracks whether Claude Mythos released by…? will occur, with $3.3M in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by available information and market participant behavior.
The market shows strong consensus: June 30 is priced at 100%, indicating traders overwhelmingly expect this outcome. At this probability level, the potential return on a correct bet is relatively low, but contrarian positions carry significant upside if the consensus proves wrong.
Trading activity is exceptionally high, with $1.9M traded in the last 24 hours alone (57% of total volume). This surge often indicates breaking news, a key deadline approaching, or a significant shift in market sentiment.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2026-04-30. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Jun 10, 2026 at 08:05 UTC, the leading outcome is June 30 at 100% probability, with $3.3M in total trading volume on Polymarket.
The total trading volume for this market is $3.3M, with $1.9M traded in the last 24 hours. This represents real money at stake from prediction market traders on Polymarket.
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