The market strongly favors ↑ 1T yuan at 99%. High confidence — but lower potential returns.
| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ↑ 1T yuan | 99% | +1% | $3K |
| 2 | ↑ 1.5T yuan | 94% | +6% | $5K |
| 3 | ↑ 2T yuan | 90% | +12% | $6K |
| 4 | ↑ 2.5T yuan | 76% | +32% | $7K |
| 5 | ↑ 3T yuan | 52% | +90% | $1K |
| 6 | ↑ 3.5T yuan BEST VALUE | 30% | +239% | $2K |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
This market will resolve to “Yes” if CXMT's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading is greater than or equal to the listed value. Otherwise, this market will resolve to...
This prediction market tracks whether CXMT IPO Closing Market Cap Above __? will occur, with $24K in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by available information and market participant behavior.
The market shows strong consensus: ↑ 1T yuan is priced at 99%, indicating traders overwhelmingly expect this outcome. At this probability level, the potential return on a correct bet is relatively low, but contrarian positions carry significant upside if the consensus proves wrong.
Trading activity is exceptionally high, with $24K traded in the last 24 hours alone (100% of total volume). This surge often indicates breaking news, a key deadline approaching, or a significant shift in market sentiment.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2026-12-31. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Jul 23, 2026 at 23:55 UTC, the leading outcome is ↑ 1T yuan at 99% probability, with $24K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
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