Match Winner leads at 72%. Moderate consensus — room for value on contrarian bets.
| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Match Winner | 72% | +40% | $17K |
| 2 | Game 1 Winner | 64% | +55% | $4K |
| 3 | Game 2 Winner | 64% | +57% | $2K |
| 4 | Both Teams Beat Roshan | 60% | +67% | - |
| 5 | Any Player Rampage | 60% | +67% | - |
| 6 | Any Player Ultra Kill | 56% | +77% | - |
| 7 | Both Teams Destroy Barracks | 54% | +87% | - |
| 8 | Ends in Daytime | 52% | +94% | - |
| 9 | Ends in Daytime | 52% | +94% | - |
| 10 | Ends in Daytime | 52% | +94% | - |
| 11 | First Blood in Game 1? | 48% | +106% | - |
| 12 | Total Kills Over/Under 55.5 in Game 2? | 46% | +117% | - |
| 13 | O/U 2.5 Games | 44% | +127% | $2K |
| 14 | Total Kills Over/Under 55.5 in Game 1? | 44% | +130% | - |
| 15 | Game Handicap: Iron Wing (-1.5) vs Nigma Galaxy (+1.5) | 43% | +133% | $4K |
| 16 | Both Teams Beat Roshan | 36% | +182% | - |
| 17 | Both Teams Beat Roshan | 36% | +182% | - |
| 18 | Any Player Ultra Kill | 35% | +186% | - |
| 19 | Any Player Ultra Kill | 35% | +186% | - |
| 20 | Both Teams Destroy Barracks BEST VALUE | 34% | +190% | - |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
This market refers to the Dota 2 Round 1 match between Iron Wing and Nigma Galaxy in the The International Group Stage, initially scheduled for August 12 at 10:00PM ET. This market will resolve to "I...
This prediction market tracks whether Dota 2: Iron Wing vs Nigma Galaxy (BO3) - The International Group Stage will occur, with $29K in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by team performance data, historical matchups, and real-time injury reports.
Traders lean toward Match Winner at 72%, suggesting a probable but not certain outcome. This moderate confidence level often reflects genuine uncertainty — markets at this range tend to see the most price movement as new information emerges.
Trading activity is exceptionally high, with $28K traded in the last 24 hours alone (95% of total volume). This surge often indicates breaking news, a key deadline approaching, or a significant shift in market sentiment.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2026-08-13. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Aug 12, 2026 at 21:35 UTC, the leading outcome is Match Winner at 72% probability, with $29K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
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