The market strongly favors 25 bps increase at 98%. High confidence — but lower potential returns.
| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 25 bps increase | 98% | +2% | $107K |
| 2 | No change | 2% | +6150% | $88K |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the deposit facility rate resulting from the September 2026 meeting of the European Central Bank, relative to the level it was prior...
This prediction market tracks whether ECB Interest Rates: September 2026 will occur, with $285K in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by macroeconomic indicators, central bank signals, and market expectations.
The market shows strong consensus: 25 bps increase is priced at 98%, indicating traders overwhelmingly expect this outcome. At this probability level, the potential return on a correct bet is relatively low, but contrarian positions carry significant upside if the consensus proves wrong.
The market has seen $11K in 24-hour volume, suggesting a period of relative calm. Lower activity periods can present value opportunities for traders who spot mispriced odds before the broader market reacts.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2026-09-10. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Aug 31, 2026 at 18:15 UTC, the leading outcome is 25 bps increase at 98% probability, with $285K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
The total trading volume for this market is $285K, with $11K traded in the last 24 hours. This represents real money at stake from prediction market traders on Polymarket.
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