No clear favorite. 200-219 leads at just 18%. Many possible outcomes.
| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 200-219 | 18% | +456% | $201 |
| 2 | 180-199 | 16% | +506% | $188 |
| 3 | 220-239 | 15% | +567% | $125 |
| 4 | 160-179 | 14% | +614% | $170 |
| 5 | 240-259 | 10% | +852% | $263 |
| 6 | 140-159 BEST VALUE | 8% | +1076% | $30 |
| 7 | 260-279 | 8% | +1076% | $178 |
| 8 | 280-299 | 3% | +3536% | $2K |
| 9 | 120-139 | 2% | +3900% | $89 |
| 10 | 300-319 | 2% | +5961% | $451 |
| 11 | 320-339 | 1% | +7900% | $175 |
| 12 | 380-399 | 1% | +7900% | $50 |
| 13 | 100-119 | 1% | +9424% | $497 |
| 14 | 340-359 | 1% | +13233% | $187 |
| 15 | 360-379 | 1% | +15285% | $62 |
| 16 | 80-99 | 1% | +16567% | $12 |
| 17 | 400-419 | 1% | +16567% | $50 |
| 18 | 420-439 | 1% | +16567% | $5 |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 11 12:00 PM ET to August 18, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed...
This prediction market tracks whether Elon Musk # tweets August 11 - August 18, 2026? will occur, with $14K in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by polling data, political developments, and historical voting patterns.
No clear favorite has emerged — 200-219 leads at only 18% across 18 possible outcomes. Markets with this level of uncertainty typically offer the highest potential returns but also carry the greatest risk.
Trading activity is exceptionally high, with $15K traded in the last 24 hours alone (101% of total volume). This surge often indicates breaking news, a key deadline approaching, or a significant shift in market sentiment.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2026-08-18. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Aug 08, 2026 at 10:05 UTC, the leading outcome is 200-219 at 18% probability, with $14K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
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