No clear favorite. 800-839 leads at just 15%. Many possible outcomes.
| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 800-839 | 15% | +564% | $1K |
| 2 | 840-879 | 15% | +585% | $2K |
| 3 | 1000+ | 14% | +590% | $4K |
| 4 | 880-919 | 11% | +809% | $2K |
| 5 | 920-959 | 8% | +1174% | $2K |
| 6 | 780-799 | 8% | +1233% | $745 |
| 7 | 760-779 | 7% | +1299% | $316 |
| 8 | 680-699 | 7% | +1427% | $2K |
| 9 | 960-999 | 6% | +1581% | $3K |
| 10 | 740-759 BEST VALUE | 6% | +1670% | $1K |
| 11 | 720-739 | 5% | +2098% | $660 |
| 12 | 700-719 | 4% | +2226% | $949 |
| 13 | 660-679 | 3% | +3674% | $939 |
| 14 | 640-659 | 2% | +4445% | $1K |
| 15 | 620-639 | 1% | +7900% | $1K |
| 16 | 600-619 | 1% | +12400% | $647 |
| 17 | 560-579 | 1% | +16567% | $1K |
| 18 | 580-599 | 1% | +18082% | $520 |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X during the month of August 2026. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and rep...
This prediction market tracks whether Elon Musk # tweets in August 2026? will occur, with $62K in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by polling data, political developments, and historical voting patterns.
No clear favorite has emerged — 800-839 leads at only 15% across 18 possible outcomes. Markets with this level of uncertainty typically offer the highest potential returns but also carry the greatest risk.
Trading activity is exceptionally high, with $15K traded in the last 24 hours alone (24% of total volume). This surge often indicates breaking news, a key deadline approaching, or a significant shift in market sentiment.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2026-09-01. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Aug 09, 2026 at 21:35 UTC, the leading outcome is 800-839 at 15% probability, with $62K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
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