No clear favorite. 200-219 leads at just 16%. Many possible outcomes.
Low Liquidity — trade with caution| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 200-219 | 16% | +506% | $30 |
| 2 | 180-199 | 14% | +590% | $1K |
| 3 | 220-239 | 14% | +590% | $30 |
| 4 | 240-259 | 14% | +641% | $74 |
| 5 | 260-279 | 8% | +1076% | $25 |
| 6 | 300-319 | 8% | +1233% | $87 |
| 7 | 160-179 | 6% | +1438% | $25 |
| 8 | 280-299 | 6% | +1567% | $45 |
| 9 | 400-419 | 6% | +1718% | $10 |
| 10 | 360-379 | 5% | +1805% | $180 |
| 11 | 380-399 BEST VALUE | 5% | +1900% | $10 |
| 12 | 120-139 | 4% | +2400% | $35 |
| 13 | 140-159 | 4% | +2757% | $25 |
| 14 | 320-339 | 3% | +3822% | $438 |
| 15 | 340-359 | 2% | +6352% | $596 |
| 16 | 100-119 | 1% | +8596% | $45 |
| 17 | 80-99 | 1% | +18082% | $10 |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 4 12:00 PM ET to August 11, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed p...
This prediction market tracks whether Elon Musk # tweets August 4 - August 11, 2026? will occur, with $9K in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by polling data, political developments, and historical voting patterns.
No clear favorite has emerged — 200-219 leads at only 16% across 17 possible outcomes. Markets with this level of uncertainty typically offer the highest potential returns but also carry the greatest risk.
Trading activity is exceptionally high, with $9K traded in the last 24 hours alone (100% of total volume). This surge often indicates breaking news, a key deadline approaching, or a significant shift in market sentiment.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2026-08-11. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Aug 01, 2026 at 07:25 UTC, the leading outcome is 200-219 at 16% probability, with $9K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
What Are Prediction Markets? · How to Trade · Odds Calculator · Compare Platforms