No clear favorite. 180-199 leads at just 14%. Many possible outcomes.
| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 180-199 | 14% | +590% | $348 |
| 2 | 200-219 | 14% | +590% | $37 |
| 3 | 160-179 | 12% | +700% | $328 |
| 4 | 220-239 | 12% | +770% | $50 |
| 5 | 240-259 | 10% | +852% | $120 |
| 6 | 140-159 | 8% | +1233% | $30 |
| 7 | 260-279 | 8% | +1233% | $13 |
| 8 | 120-139 BEST VALUE | 6% | +1526% | $399 |
| 9 | 100-119 | 4% | +2678% | $557 |
| 10 | 280-299 | 4% | +2757% | $180 |
| 11 | 300-319 | 3% | +2841% | $316 |
| 12 | 320-339 | 3% | +3348% | $132 |
| 13 | 340-359 | 2% | +4778% | $5 |
| 14 | 80-99 | 2% | +5782% | $2K |
| 15 | 360-379 | 1% | +8233% | $1K |
| 16 | 380-399 | 1% | +13233% | $1K |
| 17 | 60-79 | 1% | +15285% | $17K |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from July 28 12:00 PM ET to August 4, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed pos...
This prediction market tracks whether Elon Musk # tweets July 28 - August 4, 2026? will occur, with $36K in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by polling data, political developments, and historical voting patterns.
No clear favorite has emerged — 180-199 leads at only 14% across 17 possible outcomes. Markets with this level of uncertainty typically offer the highest potential returns but also carry the greatest risk.
Trading activity is exceptionally high, with $36K traded in the last 24 hours alone (100% of total volume). This surge often indicates breaking news, a key deadline approaching, or a significant shift in market sentiment.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2026-08-04. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Jul 25, 2026 at 10:35 UTC, the leading outcome is 180-199 at 14% probability, with $36K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
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