The market strongly favors Lionel Messi: 1+ shots at 92%. High confidence — but lower potential returns.
| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lionel Messi: 1+ shots | 92% | +9% | - |
| 2 | Harry Kane: 1+ shots | 88% | +14% | - |
| 3 | Jude Bellingham: 1+ shots | 84% | +20% | $51 |
| 4 | Lionel Messi: 2+ shots | 82% | +22% | - |
| 5 | Julián Álvarez: 1+ shots | 82% | +23% | - |
| 6 | Bukayo Saka: 1+ shots | 78% | +28% | - |
| 7 | Enzo Fernández: 1+ shots | 74% | +34% | - |
| 8 | Anthony Gordon: 1+ shots | 72% | +39% | - |
| 9 | Alexis Mac Allister: 1+ shots | 72% | +40% | $99 |
| 10 | Declan Rice: 1+ shots | 70% | +44% | - |
| 11 | Noni Madueke: 1+ shots | 67% | +49% | - |
| 12 | Harry Kane: 2+ shots | 66% | +50% | - |
| 13 | Lionel Messi: 3+ shots | 66% | +53% | - |
| 14 | Elliot Anderson: 1+ shots | 58% | +71% | - |
| 15 | Harry Kane: 1+ shots on target | 57% | +74% | - |
| 16 | Jude Bellingham: 2+ shots | 55% | +82% | $104 |
| 17 | Nico O’Reilly: 1+ shots | 54% | +85% | - |
| 18 | Lionel Messi: 1+ shots on target | 52% | +92% | - |
| 19 | Jude Bellingham: 1+ shots on target | 50% | +98% | - |
| 20 | Exequiel Palacios: 2+ goals + assists BEST VALUE | 50% | +100% | - |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
Player prop markets for the FIFA World Cup game between England and Argentina, scheduled for July 15 at 3:00 PM ET.
This prediction market tracks whether England vs. Argentina - Player Props will occur, with $14K in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by team performance data, historical matchups, and real-time injury reports.
The market shows strong consensus: Lionel Messi: 1+ shots is priced at 92%, indicating traders overwhelmingly expect this outcome. At this probability level, the potential return on a correct bet is relatively low, but contrarian positions carry significant upside if the consensus proves wrong.
Trading activity is exceptionally high, with $14K traded in the last 24 hours alone (100% of total volume). This surge often indicates breaking news, a key deadline approaching, or a significant shift in market sentiment.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2026-07-15. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Jul 13, 2026 at 00:25 UTC, the leading outcome is Lionel Messi: 1+ shots at 92% probability, with $14K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
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