No clear favorite. November 11 leads at just 22%. Many possible outcomes.
| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | November 11 | 22% | +351% | $275 |
| 2 | November 27 | 21% | +376% | $369 |
| 3 | November 12 | 20% | +405% | $404 |
| 4 | November 20 | 19% | +419% | $193 |
| 5 | November 17 | 18% | +441% | $671 |
| 6 | November 13 | 18% | +448% | $229 |
| 7 | No release by November 30 | 15% | +567% | $4K |
| 8 | November 18 | 13% | +663% | $271 |
| 9 | November 14 | 8% | +1076% | $561 |
| 10 | November 8 | 6% | +1438% | $281 |
| 11 | November 10 BEST VALUE | 6% | +1567% | $381 |
| 12 | November 5 | 5% | +2074% | $624 |
| 13 | November 25 | 4% | +2122% | $674 |
| 14 | November 15 | 4% | +2339% | $194 |
| 15 | November 21 | 4% | +2464% | $2K |
| 16 | On or prior to October 31 | 4% | +2532% | $284 |
| 17 | November 22 | 4% | +2567% | $389 |
| 18 | November 19 | 4% | +2678% | $194 |
| 19 | November 1 | 3% | +2799% | $248 |
| 20 | November 29 | 3% | +2841% | $168 |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
On October 9, 2026, Business Insider reported that Google employees were internally testing a Gemini 4 model codenamed "Carbon," separate from the checkpoint later released as Gemini 4 Argon (https://...
This prediction market tracks whether Gemini Carbon released on...? will occur, with $16K in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by available information and market participant behavior.
No clear favorite has emerged — November 11 leads at only 22% across 20 possible outcomes. Markets with this level of uncertainty typically offer the highest potential returns but also carry the greatest risk.
Trading activity is exceptionally high, with $15K traded in the last 24 hours alone (95% of total volume). This surge often indicates breaking news, a key deadline approaching, or a significant shift in market sentiment.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2026-12-01. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Oct 30, 2026 at 01:05 UTC, the leading outcome is November 11 at 22% probability, with $16K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
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