The market strongly favors ≥85 mph at 100%. High confidence — but lower potential returns.
| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ≥85 mph | 100% | +0% | $2K |
| 2 | ≥100 mph | 77% | +30% | $9K |
| 3 | ≥90 mph | 70% | +43% | $8K |
| 4 | ≥95 mph | 62% | +61% | $13K |
| 5 | ≥115 mph | 50% | +101% | $2K |
| 6 | ≥110 mph | 25% | +300% | $1K |
| 7 | ≥105 mph BEST VALUE | 14% | +614% | $2K |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
This market will resolve based on the highest wind speed, in miles per hour, reported on the summit of Mt. Washington in New Hampshire in July, 2026. The resolution source will be data published by...
This prediction market tracks whether Highest Mt. Washington wind speed in July? will occur, with $38K in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by available information and market participant behavior.
The market shows strong consensus: ≥85 mph is priced at 100%, indicating traders overwhelmingly expect this outcome. At this probability level, the potential return on a correct bet is relatively low, but contrarian positions carry significant upside if the consensus proves wrong.
Trading activity is exceptionally high, with $18K traded in the last 24 hours alone (47% of total volume). This surge often indicates breaking news, a key deadline approaching, or a significant shift in market sentiment.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2026-07-31. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Jul 16, 2026 at 20:25 UTC, the leading outcome is ≥85 mph at 100% probability, with $38K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
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