102-103°F leads at 63%. Moderate consensus — room for value on contrarian bets.
| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 102-103°F | 63% | +59% | $3K |
| 2 | 104-105°F | 18% | +471% | $2K |
| 3 | 100-101°F BEST VALUE | 16% | +545% | $7K |
| 4 | 106-107°F | 2% | +5782% | $557 |
| 5 | 98-99°F | 2% | +6567% | $817 |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the ev...
This prediction market tracks whether Highest temperature in Austin on August 17? will occur, with $17K in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by available information and market participant behavior.
Traders lean toward 102-103°F at 63%, suggesting a probable but not certain outcome. This moderate confidence level often reflects genuine uncertainty — markets at this range tend to see the most price movement as new information emerges.
Trading activity is exceptionally high, with $15K traded in the last 24 hours alone (91% of total volume). This surge often indicates breaking news, a key deadline approaching, or a significant shift in market sentiment.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2026-08-17. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Aug 17, 2026 at 07:55 UTC, the leading outcome is 102-103°F at 63% probability, with $17K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
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