The market strongly favors 27°C at 86%. High confidence — but lower potential returns.
| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 27°C | 86% | +16% | $2K |
| 2 | 28°C BEST VALUE | 12% | +733% | $3K |
| 3 | 29°C | 1% | +15285% | $2K |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 12 Jul '26. The resolution source for this marke...
This prediction market tracks whether Highest temperature in Istanbul on July 12? will occur, with $22K in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by available information and market participant behavior.
The market shows strong consensus: 27°C is priced at 86%, indicating traders overwhelmingly expect this outcome. At this probability level, the potential return on a correct bet is relatively low, but contrarian positions carry significant upside if the consensus proves wrong.
Trading activity is exceptionally high, with $14K traded in the last 24 hours alone (64% of total volume). This surge often indicates breaking news, a key deadline approaching, or a significant shift in market sentiment.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2026-07-12. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Jul 12, 2026 at 11:35 UTC, the leading outcome is 27°C at 86% probability, with $22K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
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