This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 31 Mar '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
| # | Outcome | Probability | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 16°C | 58% | $2K |
| 2 | 15°C | 19% | $2K |
| 3 | 17°C | 12% | $2K |
| 4 | 18°C or higher | 9% | $3K |
| 5 | 14°C | 7% | $2K |
| 6 | 13°C | 1% | $2K |
| 7 | 12°C | 1% | $3K |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
As of Mar 30, 2026 at 23:20 UTC, the leading outcome is 16°C at 58% probability, with $61K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
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