81°F or below leads at 74%. Moderate consensus — room for value on contrarian bets.
| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 81°F or below | 74% | +36% | $9K |
| 2 | 82-83°F | 14% | +590% | $3K |
| 3 | 84-85°F BEST VALUE | 7% | +1242% | $2K |
| 4 | 86-87°F | 1% | +7900% | $7K |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 21 Jul '26. The resolution...
This prediction market tracks whether Highest temperature in San Francisco on July 21? will occur, with $29K in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by available information and market participant behavior.
Traders lean toward 81°F or below at 74%, suggesting a probable but not certain outcome. This moderate confidence level often reflects genuine uncertainty — markets at this range tend to see the most price movement as new information emerges.
Trading activity is exceptionally high, with $23K traded in the last 24 hours alone (79% of total volume). This surge often indicates breaking news, a key deadline approaching, or a significant shift in market sentiment.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2026-07-21. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Jul 21, 2026 at 05:35 UTC, the leading outcome is 81°F or below at 74% probability, with $29K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
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