No clear favorite. 28°C leads at just 32%. Many possible outcomes.
| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 28°C | 32% | +208% | $3K |
| 2 | 27°C | 32% | +217% | $1K |
| 3 | 29°C | 24% | +308% | $3K |
| 4 | 26°C | 8% | +1076% | $1K |
| 5 | 30°C BEST VALUE | 6% | +1718% | $969 |
| 6 | 25°C | 3% | +3233% | $725 |
| 7 | 31°C | 2% | +4900% | $658 |
| 8 | 32°C or higher | 1% | +12400% | $378 |
| 9 | 24°C | 1% | +18082% | $247 |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the ev...
This prediction market tracks whether Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 14? will occur, with $13K in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by available information and market participant behavior.
No clear favorite has emerged — 28°C leads at only 32% across 9 possible outcomes. Markets with this level of uncertainty typically offer the highest potential returns but also carry the greatest risk.
Trading activity is exceptionally high, with $13K traded in the last 24 hours alone (98% of total volume). This surge often indicates breaking news, a key deadline approaching, or a significant shift in market sentiment.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2026-08-14. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Aug 13, 2026 at 05:15 UTC, the leading outcome is 28°C at 32% probability, with $13K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
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