No clear favorite. Below 5.20% leads at just 26%. Many possible outcomes.
| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Below 5.20% | 26% | +277% | $6K |
| 2 | Below 5.15% | 18% | +456% | $6K |
| 3 | Below 5.10% | 16% | +545% | $10K |
| 4 | Below 4.95% | 10% | +953% | $3K |
| 5 | Below 5.05% | 10% | +953% | $9K |
| 6 | Below 5.00% | 9% | +1011% | $7K |
| 7 | Below 4.90% BEST VALUE | 8% | +1076% | $3K |
| 8 | Below 4.80% | 3% | +3179% | $7K |
| 9 | Below 4.60% | 3% | +3233% | $3K |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 30-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No"....
This prediction market tracks whether How low will 30-year Treasury yield get before 2027? will occur, with $53K in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by macroeconomic indicators, central bank signals, and market expectations.
No clear favorite has emerged — Below 5.20% leads at only 26% across 9 possible outcomes. Markets with this level of uncertainty typically offer the highest potential returns but also carry the greatest risk.
Trading activity is exceptionally high, with $12K traded in the last 24 hours alone (22% of total volume). This surge often indicates breaking news, a key deadline approaching, or a significant shift in market sentiment.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2026-12-31. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Oct 07, 2026 at 17:15 UTC, the leading outcome is Below 5.20% at 26% probability, with $53K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
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