No clear favorite. >12 leads at just 29%. Many possible outcomes.
| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | >12 | 29% | +245% | $2K |
| 2 | 12 | 16% | +545% | $407 |
| 3 | 11 | 15% | +567% | $199 |
| 4 | 9 | 14% | +614% | $142 |
| 5 | 10 | 14% | +614% | $163 |
| 6 | 8 BEST VALUE | 10% | +953% | $862 |
| 7 | 7 | 4% | +2464% | $4K |
| 8 | ≤6 | 1% | +8596% | $20K |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 5.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between July 14, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and July 19, 2026, 11:59 PM ET....
This prediction market tracks whether How many 5.5 or above earthquakes July 14 - July 19? will occur, with $28K in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by available information and market participant behavior.
No clear favorite has emerged — >12 leads at only 29% across 8 possible outcomes. Markets with this level of uncertainty typically offer the highest potential returns but also carry the greatest risk.
Trading activity is exceptionally high, with $24K traded in the last 24 hours alone (85% of total volume). This surge often indicates breaking news, a key deadline approaching, or a significant shift in market sentiment.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2026-07-19. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Jul 16, 2026 at 22:25 UTC, the leading outcome is >12 at 29% probability, with $28K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
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