This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef). If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
| # | Outcome | Probability | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 14–16 | 28% | $150K |
| 2 | 11–13 | 28% | $377K |
| 3 | 17–19 | 18% | $198K |
| 4 | 8–10 | 16% | $122K |
| 5 | 20+ | 8% | $50K |
| 6 | 5–7 | 2% | $64K |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
As of Mar 30, 2026 at 22:00 UTC, the leading outcome is 14–16 at 28% probability, with $1.1M in total trading volume on Polymarket.
The total trading volume for this market is $1.1M, with $25K traded in the last 24 hours. This represents real money at stake from prediction market traders on Polymarket.
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