Market is split — 14–16 at 42%. High uncertainty = high risk/reward opportunity.
High Volume — $1.4M traded| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 14–16 | 42% | +138% | $188K |
| 2 | 17–19 | 36% | +178% | $213K |
| 3 | 20+ | 11% | +773% | $68K |
| 4 | 11–13 BEST VALUE | 10% | +953% | $416K |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The resoluti...
This prediction market tracks whether How many 7.0 or above earthquakes in 2026? will occur, with $1.4M in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by available information and market participant behavior.
The market is closely contested, with 14–16 leading at just 42%. This near-even split signals high uncertainty among traders, creating potential value opportunities for those with strong conviction based on their own analysis of the underlying factors.
The market has seen $12K in 24-hour volume, suggesting a period of relative calm. Lower activity periods can present value opportunities for traders who spot mispriced odds before the broader market reacts.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2026-12-31. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Aug 17, 2026 at 21:35 UTC, the leading outcome is 14–16 at 42% probability, with $1.4M in total trading volume on Polymarket.
The total trading volume for this market is $1.4M, with $12K traded in the last 24 hours. This represents real money at stake from prediction market traders on Polymarket.
What Are Prediction Markets? · How to Trade · Odds Calculator · Compare Platforms