The market strongly favors 0 (0 bps) at 86%. High confidence — but lower potential returns.
High Volume — $48.0M traded| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 (0 bps) | 86% | +16% | $7.2M |
| 2 | 1 (25 bps) BEST VALUE | 10% | +953% | $2.5M |
| 3 | 2 (50 bps) | 3% | +3409% | $2.5M |
| 4 | 3 (75 bps) | 1% | +14186% | $2.5M |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting). Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FO...
This prediction market tracks whether How many Fed rate cuts in 2026? will occur, with $48.0M in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by macroeconomic indicators, central bank signals, and market expectations.
The market shows strong consensus: 0 (0 bps) is priced at 86%, indicating traders overwhelmingly expect this outcome. At this probability level, the potential return on a correct bet is relatively low, but contrarian positions carry significant upside if the consensus proves wrong.
The market has seen $162K in 24-hour volume, suggesting a period of relative calm. Lower activity periods can present value opportunities for traders who spot mispriced odds before the broader market reacts.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2026-12-31. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Aug 13, 2026 at 04:25 UTC, the leading outcome is 0 (0 bps) at 86% probability, with $48.0M in total trading volume on Polymarket.
The total trading volume for this market is $48.0M, with $162K traded in the last 24 hours. This represents real money at stake from prediction market traders on Polymarket.
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