Market is split — 25-29 at 41%. High uncertainty = high risk/reward opportunity.
| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 25-29 | 41% | +142% | $12K |
| 2 | 20-24 | 34% | +190% | $8K |
| 3 | 30-34 BEST VALUE | 9% | +1011% | $21K |
| 4 | <20 | 4% | +2310% | $12K |
| 5 | 35-39 | 4% | +2717% | $4K |
| 6 | 40+ | 2% | +5028% | $5K |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from September 14, 2026, through September 20, 2026, inclusive....
This prediction market tracks whether How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of September 14? will occur, with $62K in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by diplomatic signals, military intelligence, and geopolitical risk assessments.
The market is closely contested, with 25-29 leading at just 41%. This near-even split signals high uncertainty among traders, creating potential value opportunities for those with strong conviction based on their own analysis of the underlying factors.
Trading activity is exceptionally high, with $26K traded in the last 24 hours alone (42% of total volume). This surge often indicates breaking news, a key deadline approaching, or a significant shift in market sentiment.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2026-09-20. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Sep 22, 2026 at 02:05 UTC, the leading outcome is 25-29 at 41% probability, with $62K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
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