450k–475k leads at 65%. Moderate consensus — room for value on contrarian bets.
| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 450k–475k | 65% | +55% | $16K |
| 2 | 475k+ | 23% | +339% | $11K |
| 3 | 425k–450k BEST VALUE | 8% | +1233% | $16K |
| 4 | 400k–425k | 2% | +4778% | $13K |
| 5 | 350k–375k | 1% | +8233% | $14K |
| 6 | 325k–350k | 1% | +13233% | $7K |
| 7 | 375k–400k | 1% | +13233% | $11K |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
This market will resolve according to Tesla's announced total vehicle deliveries for Q2 2026. If Tesla does not publish Q2 2026 delivery figures by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will reso...
This prediction market tracks whether How many Tesla deliveries in Q2 2026? will occur, with $103K in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by available information and market participant behavior.
Traders lean toward 450k–475k at 65%, suggesting a probable but not certain outcome. This moderate confidence level often reflects genuine uncertainty — markets at this range tend to see the most price movement as new information emerges.
Trading activity is exceptionally high, with $21K traded in the last 24 hours alone (20% of total volume). This surge often indicates breaking news, a key deadline approaching, or a significant shift in market sentiment.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2026-06-30. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Jun 24, 2026 at 05:05 UTC, the leading outcome is 450k–475k at 65% probability, with $103K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
The total trading volume for this market is $103K, with $21K traded in the last 24 hours. This represents real money at stake from prediction market traders on Polymarket.
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