1.15–1.19ºC leads at 84%. Moderate consensus — room for value on contrarian bets.
| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1.15–1.19ºC | 84% | +20% | $4K |
| 2 | 1.10–1.14ºC BEST VALUE | 12% | +700% | $16K |
| 3 | 1.20–1.24ºC | 3% | +3233% | $7K |
| 4 | >1.29ºC | 2% | +5614% | $5K |
| 5 | 1.25–1.29ºC | 1% | +10426% | $3K |
| 6 | <1.10ºC | 1% | +14186% | $2K |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for June 2026 when it is released. An anomaly within a named bracket for June 2026 is necessary and...
This prediction market tracks whether June 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC) will occur, with $38K in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by available information and market participant behavior.
Traders lean toward 1.15–1.19ºC at 84%, suggesting a probable but not certain outcome. This moderate confidence level often reflects genuine uncertainty — markets at this range tend to see the most price movement as new information emerges.
Trading activity is exceptionally high, with $15K traded in the last 24 hours alone (39% of total volume). This surge often indicates breaking news, a key deadline approaching, or a significant shift in market sentiment.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2026-06-30. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Jun 23, 2026 at 02:25 UTC, the leading outcome is 1.15–1.19ºC at 84% probability, with $38K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
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