The market strongly favors Match Winner at 94%. High confidence — but lower potential returns.
| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Match Winner | 94% | +6% | $6K |
| 2 | Game Handicap: BLG (-1.5) vs LYON (+1.5) | 86% | +16% | $14 |
| 3 | Game 3 Winner | 84% | +20% | - |
| 4 | Game 1 Winner | 83% | +20% | $53 |
| 5 | Game 2 Winner | 83% | +20% | $59 |
| 6 | First Blood in Game 3? | 74% | +36% | - |
| 7 | First Blood in Game 1? | 74% | +36% | - |
| 8 | First Blood in Game 2? | 72% | +38% | - |
| 9 | First Blood in Game 4? | 72% | +39% | - |
| 10 | Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 68% | +48% | - |
| 11 | Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 66% | +50% | - |
| 12 | Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 66% | +52% | - |
| 13 | Game Handicap: BLG (-2.5) vs LYON (+2.5) | 60% | +68% | $14K |
| 14 | Game 4 Winner | 59% | +69% | $156 |
| 15 | Any Player Quadra Kill | 52% | +94% | - |
| 16 | Any Player Quadra Kill | 52% | +94% | - |
| 17 | Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors BEST VALUE | 51% | +96% | - |
| 18 | Any Player Penta Kill | 51% | +96% | - |
| 19 | Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 4? | 51% | +96% | - |
| 20 | Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 4? | 51% | +96% | - |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
This market refers to the LoL Upper bracket semifinal 1 match between Bilibili Gaming and LYON in the Mid-Season Invitational Playoffs, initially scheduled for July 5 at 11:00PM ET. This market will...
This prediction market tracks whether LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs LYON (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Playoffs will occur, with $18K in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by team performance data, historical matchups, and real-time injury reports.
The market shows strong consensus: Match Winner is priced at 94%, indicating traders overwhelmingly expect this outcome. At this probability level, the potential return on a correct bet is relatively low, but contrarian positions carry significant upside if the consensus proves wrong.
Trading activity is exceptionally high, with $18K traded in the last 24 hours alone (100% of total volume). This surge often indicates breaking news, a key deadline approaching, or a significant shift in market sentiment.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2026-07-06. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Jul 04, 2026 at 19:55 UTC, the leading outcome is Match Winner at 94% probability, with $18K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
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