The market strongly favors Match Winner at 88%. High confidence — but lower potential returns.
| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Match Winner | 88% | +13% | $10K |
| 2 | Game 1 Winner | 76% | +32% | $3K |
| 3 | Game 2 Winner | 74% | +34% | $21 |
| 4 | Game 3 Winner | 74% | +34% | $3 |
| 5 | Game Handicap: EST (-1.5) vs KaBuM! Ilha das Lendas (+1.5) | 74% | +36% | $7K |
| 6 | Game 4 Winner | 72% | +39% | $181 |
| 7 | Odd/Even Total Kills | 62% | +60% | $3K |
| 8 | O/U 3.5 Games | 52% | +92% | $945 |
| 9 | Any Player Penta Kill | 52% | +92% | - |
| 10 | Any Player Quadra Kill | 51% | +96% | - |
| 11 | Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 50% | +98% | - |
| 12 | Any Player Quadra Kill BEST VALUE | 50% | +100% | - |
| 13 | Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% | +100% | - |
| 14 | Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 50% | +100% | - |
| 15 | Any Player Quadra Kill | 50% | +100% | - |
| 16 | Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% | +100% | - |
| 17 | Any Player Quadra Kill | 50% | +100% | - |
| 18 | Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% | +100% | - |
| 19 | Any Player Quadra Kill | 50% | +100% | - |
| 20 | Any Player Penta Kill | 50% | +100% | - |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
This market refers to the LoL Grand final match between Estral Esports and KaBuM! Ilha das Lendas in the Circuito Desafiante Playoffs, initially scheduled for September 14, 2026 at 4:00 PM ET. This m...
This prediction market tracks whether LoL: Estral Esports vs KaBuM! Ilha das Lendas (BO5) - Circuito Desafiante Playoffs will occur, with $34K in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by team performance data, historical matchups, and real-time injury reports.
The market shows strong consensus: Match Winner is priced at 88%, indicating traders overwhelmingly expect this outcome. At this probability level, the potential return on a correct bet is relatively low, but contrarian positions carry significant upside if the consensus proves wrong.
Trading activity is exceptionally high, with $27K traded in the last 24 hours alone (79% of total volume). This surge often indicates breaking news, a key deadline approaching, or a significant shift in market sentiment.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2026-09-15. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Sep 14, 2026 at 18:55 UTC, the leading outcome is Match Winner at 88% probability, with $34K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
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