The market strongly favors Match Winner at 98%. High confidence — but lower potential returns.
| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Match Winner | 98% | +2% | $11K |
| 2 | Game 1 Winner | 90% | +11% | $20 |
| 3 | Game 2 Winner | 90% | +11% | $20 |
| 4 | Game 3 Winner | 88% | +14% | $20 |
| 5 | Game Handicap: T1 (-2.5) vs FURIA Esports (+2.5) | 77% | +30% | $687 |
| 6 | Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 68% | +48% | - |
| 7 | Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 66% | +52% | - |
| 8 | Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 65% | +54% | - |
| 9 | Game 4 Winner | 61% | +64% | $1K |
| 10 | Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 1? | 52% | +90% | - |
| 11 | Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 1? | 52% | +90% | - |
| 12 | Game Handicap: T1 (-1.5) vs FURIA Esports (+1.5) | 52% | +94% | - |
| 13 | Any Player Quadra Kill | 52% | +94% | - |
| 14 | Any Player Quadra Kill | 52% | +94% | - |
| 15 | Any Player Penta Kill | 51% | +96% | - |
| 16 | First Blood in Game 1? | 51% | +96% | - |
| 17 | First Blood in Game 3? | 51% | +96% | - |
| 18 | Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 50% | +98% | - |
| 19 | Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 50% | +98% | - |
| 20 | Odd/Even Total Kills BEST VALUE | 50% | +100% | $2 |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
This market refers to the LoL Lower bracket round 1 match between T1 and FURIA Esports in the Mid-Season Invitational Playoffs, initially scheduled for July 6 at 4:00AM ET. This market will resolve t...
This prediction market tracks whether LoL: T1 vs FURIA Esports (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Playoffs will occur, with $13K in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by team performance data, historical matchups, and real-time injury reports.
The market shows strong consensus: Match Winner is priced at 98%, indicating traders overwhelmingly expect this outcome. At this probability level, the potential return on a correct bet is relatively low, but contrarian positions carry significant upside if the consensus proves wrong.
Trading activity is exceptionally high, with $13K traded in the last 24 hours alone (100% of total volume). This surge often indicates breaking news, a key deadline approaching, or a significant shift in market sentiment.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2026-07-06. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Jul 04, 2026 at 22:25 UTC, the leading outcome is Match Winner at 98% probability, with $13K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
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